Democrats

[Zen]

I had a rather sobering thought when I heard the Super Tuesday results... That thought was: The person Joe Biden reminds me the most of is probably Bob Dole... the next thought to come to mind was that perhaps Walter Mondale was an even better fit, but Dole came to mind first... The point is: a prominent figure who's career was mostly in the Senate, has been on national tickets before, but never as in the top spot, and is, frankly, not electable. The perfect fall guy to toss out against a sitting president who just weathered an impeachment... It reeks of towels being thrown in...

[Mike]

Some Republicans are sick of Trump and are willing to vote for Joe Biden. They won't vote for Bernie. Biden does better with independents than Sanders. Sanders's huge advantage was supposed to be his appeal to people under 40, and his election strategy relied on turning out record numbers of young voters. That has not materialized so far. In fact, there have been some areas with record or near-record turnout levels in the primaries, but they haven't been for Bernie.

Uncle Joe's not my first choice. Like Zen, I don't see him as inspiring or motivating, but apparently, there are large and important demographics in this country that disagree with me. I'd rather see a President Sanders than a President Biden, and I would have rather seen a President Warren (and maybe Harris) before either of them, but whatever. Everyone vote your conscience in the primaries, the dust will settle soon, and I'm voting Democrat for president in November.

[Stan]

[Zen]

[Mike]

[Phoebe]

Another four days would be a disaster but this is the way we have it.

They should just keep replaying that video of he and Obama riding bikes in the White House.

[Zen]

One of the headlines on my obnoxious alarm (that actually works to wake me up) that spews the weather forecast and daily headlines at me caught my attention this morning. I didn't catch what it was entirely, but it was something about "Trump", "Biden", and "Senile". I will readily admit that I have NOT been following the campaigns of ANY of the candidates or the news AT ALL and have pretty much only seen the campaign through the ads that have been forced on my while I've watched The Voice, the only live television that I subject myself to. (And a few during the Super Bowl, but I skipped a lot of those and didn't really pay attention to the whole thing, since I was watching it after it started. I don't even really remember who was in it now...)

So I decided to search on those three terms and see what I found. Interestingly, there were two main threads exemplified by the following:

1.
2.

Sure, I get that Biden is 77 years old and makes a lot of gaffs... but... he made a lot of gaffs when he was younger too! And, let's face it, Trump is 73 and Sanders is 78. Are any of them really safe bringing senility into the campaign against one another? That seems like a double edged sword!

[Phoebe]

This is the type of crap you will see all over social media, with people posting "news" from bogus sources. If they can make it seem like a possibility lurking in the back of people's minds, or better yet if they can influence some idiot who writes for the mainstream media to explore the theme in a "questioning" manner, then it's a win. I don't know if the Bernie bro phenomenon is itself a creation of this kind of lying scheme, but whether they are fake or real, there are definitely Bernie Bros invested a lot in talking about how senile Biden is and how they'll never vote for anyone but Bernie. I tend to think those are really just Trump supporters, but who knows. If you don't vote against Trump then you don't believe in democracy, so who cares what your details are.

[Mike]

The Biden gaffes are a great attack scheme, even if they're meaningless, just like the Hillary health scare shit from four years ago. Biden's always talked like that. And so has Trump, and so did Bush. You can meme together out of context video of any of them to make it look like they are incompetent. But with Trump, you get leaks from internal sources saying he really IS a doddering, raving old lunatic. With Biden, you get none of that.

[Phoebe]

Yup, if the looneytunes reports were to be believed, Hillary has managed a complete miracle by remaining healthy and functional through 2020. Who woulda thought it possible?

[poorpete]

I know I'm selfish a bit in this, as I like him but have not voted for him either election, but I think now is the best time for Sanders to suspend his campaign.

- Less rallies and unnecessary travel during the outbreak, he'd be doing a public service.
- Only way back now would be to really pull down Biden's decent approval ratings, all for the unlikely chance for victory. But this also means Sanders right now has leverage which he could gain concessions and a voice-in-the-process in return for dropping out.
- If he doesn't completely upend the primary and pull down Biden's approval, Biden will coast to victory and will have no need to compromise directly with Sanders at the convention. Now's the time.
- Some people are ready to move on from the primary and that number will continue to grow, especially if Sanders is continuing this knowing he probably won't win.

[Tahlvin]

Agree. I know he wants to push the party left, but he may have a better chance of doing that by bowing out now than staying in the race.

[Stan]

Hopefully, both sides are talking seriously behind the scenes. Like bowing out in return form positions or policy planks. If Sanders takes it all the way and loses, I'm afraid his supporters will turn off from politics.

It looks like once again, I was not able to vote meaningfully in a primary.

[Phoebe]

Agreed; many Sanders people will NOT accept legit defeat by Biden in terms of delegates. They will only accept Bernie choosing to step out and vociferously support Biden, and even then some of them will just refuse to vote. The "rigged" crap is pathetic; I assume it's fake propaganda designed to harm Democrats. I am not impressed. We are trying to keep democracy, bruh.

[buckett]

I'll hold my nose and vote for him, just like I did Clinton in 2016, essentially purely for SCOTUS reasons. Then I'll still be blamed for it when this weak candidate who inspires absolutely nobody - I've literally never heard a single person advocate for him on policy grounds - loses. So depressing.

Here's a thought: maybe, JUST MAYBE, if Biden loses it's not the voters' fault, it's the party's fault for rejecting the progressive movement and opting to court never-Trump Republicans instead. You reap what you sow.

[Mike]

Look at turnout numbers for the primary. In areas where Biden won, we are seeing record and near record numbers in lots of places. Where Sanders won, we are not. That is so counterintuitive to me, but clearly something is going on under my radar.

When asked, "If your candidate loses, will you still vote for the other guy in the general?" Most Sanders supporters said yes they would vote for Biden. Way less of the Biden supporters said they would vote for Sanders. In fact many said that of Sanders was the nominee, they'd either vote Trump or stay home. Also way counterintuitive to me.

Both of these things (as well as direct head to head polling) says Biden has a better chance of beating Trump).

[All facts remembered with 90% accuracy by me after getting it from Fivethirtyeight.]

[Phoebe]

This is an honest question, not an attempt at a gotcha question. If too few people are truly excited about Biden and the real desires of the voters swing progressive, why is it that Sanders can't win black voters, except in the youngest age categories? Why are black voters phenomenally loyal to Biden? Apparently this is one of the reasons for the enthusiastic turnout: in some states we have seen the black voter and suburban/college-degreed white female coalition producing those big numbers for Biden, and it seems likely all of them will come out for him again in November.

Given that black voters have by far the best track record in voting for liberal candidates in almost any situation, and Democratic candidates sometimes win solely because black voters and particularly black women are so loyal (and I would say, discerning!), I feel like their support of Biden deserves serious attention. Black leaders do make a positive case for him, policy wise and character wise. The media that supposedly supports him over Bernie strangely isn't much interested in rehearsing this. I only saw a little bit of coverage of this issue around the South Carolina primary.

However, I am also wondering the same thing about Latino voters and why they prefer Sanders to Biden. Seems like something everybody should understand and be taking into account, because a shocking (to me) number of Latino voters supported Trump, despite what I see as obvious racism, so if Latino voters are especially motivated by Sanders I want to know why.

[buckett]

[Mike]

I think that mischaracterizes my intent. There's a difference between not being motivated by "hope and change" and saying you are voting against it.

However, I still completely understand your point. But take note that Biden somehow has a large and enthusiastic base that is generating new turnout... awesome for him. And also note that most progressives who are not thrilled with Biden are still planning to turn out and vote against Trump. Like I say, Biden was at best my third choice, and I'm still absolutely voting for him and making sure my kids turn out as well. I know some progressives, and I have yet to meet one who is refusing to vote because Bernie's not the nominee. Anecdotal, but true. And on the other side, here in Deep Red Country, I have heard three (so far) Republicans who have said they are sick of Trump, and they won't vote for him, but they also won't vote for a Socialist. More anecdotes, so take it for what you will.

I guess my point is that a bunch of things that seemed like common wisdom to me are not born out by reality.

And also, the surest measure of "electability" is getting votes. We always know who was electable after the vote has been counted.

[Tahlvin]

The thing is, Sanders will get the progress vote, but it will be in places that were already going to vote Democrat: NY, CA, etc. To win the electoral college and the White House, they need to win in the toss up states, WI, MI, PA, FL, etc. To win there, they need to expand beyond just there liberal base, and they need to win moderates/independents and flip some Republicans who are disgusted with Trump. Go with a moderate candidate like Biden, and it's much easier to flip those voters to your candidate. Go with a far-left progressive Sanders, and that's less likely. That likely accounts for much of what Mike is seeing, where Biden voters in the primary are less likely to vote for Sanders is he's the nominee. Sanders appeals to the younger voters far more than Biden does, but they just don't turn out in a high enough percentage for that to sustain him.