Iran

[akiva]

Iran fired missiles at a U.S. base in Iraq.

[Stan]

Sigh. War with Iran wouldn't go as well as war with Iraq. Taking and holding the place is out of the question. We're looking at a potentially long running tit for tat, with possible closure of the straits. Not good for the U.S. but great for weapons manufacturers and those who benefit from higher oil prices.

Obama's work on an agreement was actually yielding results. Opened trade was helping moderate factions. Something that most American coverage and all the conservative pundits miss is that there was never an agreement between Iran and the U.S. - it's between 6 of the most important economies in the world and region. Obama's trick was getting others to play along in embargoes. If only the U.S. refused trade, it would have had no effect. Trump's talk about renegotiating is moronic crap. He was never going to be able to get others to restart embargoes and going it alone is useless. But many republicans hate Obama and want to pull down what he built up out of spite. For Trump, who is a racist narcissist, the motivation is obvious. Then you throw in the deluded neocon hawks of the sort that created the Iraq war.

Trump and Kushner are buddies with MBS, who probably doesn't want a rehabilitated Iran, he wants a a greatly weakened one. An ongoing low level war that weakens his rival and increases the value of oil would suit him fine. (Social stability in SA is built upon bread and circuses funded by oil money.)

[Phoebe]

It is good to hear a sane person's take on this, in the midst of all the bad news. I was so distracted reading the recent events this AM that I drove the kids to school in my pajamas and did not realize it until my behind hit the cold morning car seat. Really hoping the limited nature of the Iranian strike limits the scope of any response. Wonder why the plane crashed and what all that means. Iranian-Americans also being detained at Canadian border entry this week.

[Tahlvin]

The missile strike is nothing; it's not the end of Iran's retaliation. They did it as an immediate, low-key response. Months or years down the road, they'll retaliate in one of their normal fashions: downing an airliner over Scotland, bombing an embassy in some distant land where we wouldn't expect it, bombing a Marine barracks. Hell, I've even heard rumors that they'll retaliate specifically against Trump, perhaps targeting some of his international properties. I would be surprised if their retaliation stops at the missile strike, even if Trump does not escalate the shit out of the situation. I think they know what kind of person they're dealing with in Trump, and want to see what they can goad him into doing next.

[poorpete]

I buy both that this is the beginning and this is the end of the escalation. Because the status quo was working great for Iran.

They pretty much have Iraqi government on their side, and have maybe the most regional influence they've had in centuries. The Europeans want to do business with them. They know the President made moves, assassinating a military leader with lots of support in Iran, and then making threats to Iran's cultural centers which only makes us look bad, a move that plays so easily into "The Great Satan" that will brainwash future generations easy.

[akiva]

I think that maybe the best thing Iran could do would be to pressure the Iraqi government to actually get the U.S. to leave Iraq.

[FlameBlade]

[Phoebe]

Imagine if we had a President - or even a Congress, as if they took their duties seriously - who set about to gradually reduce our military presence in Iraq, and did it through a strategy that would attempt to preserve concessions or earn goodwill from agreements to do so! We live in horrid upside down world.