Top Grossers: 5/3/19

[Kyle]

Rules: Guess the Friday through Sunday domestic gross (as reported in the actuals from Box Office Mojo) for the number one movie for the weekend of May 3, 2019. You get points based on the difference between your guess and the actual opening (whether its higher or lower). You don't have to guess a particular movie, just a dollar amount. You can not guess an amount that has already been guessed by someone for this week. Once you've made a guess, you can't change it. Guesses have to be submitted by midnight the Wednesday before the opening. Guesses must be rounded to the nearest million dollars.

Results will be cumulative week to week for the current season for everyone that continues to play. If you miss a week, you can still play, but your score is 125% of the worst actual score awarded on the week you missed. If you miss two weeks in a row, you're out of the metagame, but still welcome to play the weekly game. There are three seasons per calendar year: (1) January 1 - the weekend before Memorial Day; (2) Memorial Day weekend - Labor Day weekend; and (3) the weekend after Labor Day weekend - December 31.

Please feel free to discuss prospects and speculation- this is highly encouraged. But once you post up a guess, it cannot be changed.

I'll normally post this up on the Monday before the opening weekend, and will update the cumulative scores when the actuals are released (usually Tuesday afternoon).

Past Winners:
Summer 2018: Mike
Spring 2018: buckett
Winter 2017: Zombie
Summer 2017: poorpete
Winter 2018: Kyle

Wide release movies opening this week include:
El Chicano
The Intruder
Long Shot
Uglydolls

Season 19:1 Scores (UPDATED):
buckett- 183
Kyle- 188
poorpete- 200
Mike-214
Zombie- 234
Zen- 267

Guesses (in millions):
Mike- 153
Zombie-160
Kyle- 159
buckett- 170
poorpete- 175
Zen- 189

[Kyle]

$159 million- for Long Shot f/k/a Flarsky

[poorpete]

I'll share some 2nd weekend % changes I looked up, because they are so varied, and the result is between 100M and 200M depending.

Return of the King -33%
Revenge of the Sith -49%
Iron Man 4 -58%
Spider-man 3 -61%
Deathly Hallows Pt 2 -69%

I'll go 50%: 175.

[buckett]

170

[Zombie]

160

[Mike]

153

[Kyle]

Metascores updated.

[Zen]

$189 mil

[Mike]

[Kyle]

Yeah- I went with 55 percent but with a slightly lower number than the actuals. But we’re all grasping at straws trying to predict this.

[Mike]

Agreed. This one'll go Black Panther and wind up at 198.

[Kyle]

See- I'm guessing not. I could be totally wrong, but an opening this huge AND with a running time of 3 hours seems unsustainable. I might look stupid for this on Sunday afternoon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60% fall.

[Zen]

Well... I haven't seen it yet, so I'll probably contribute to it's numbers this weekend...

[Mike]

@Kyle: That was my thought. I went 57-58.

[Kyle]

[Mike]

Deadline's calling 148+.

Fingers crossed, but congrats Kyle.

[poorpete]

Feel 59% drop is the good bet in most cases, unless a film is so widely acclaimed or the exact opposite. Most of the time, one of you already guessed in that range.

[Kyle]

Weekend actuals: $147,383,211

Results:
Mike- 6
Kyle- 12
Zombie- 13
buckett- 23
poorpete- 28
Zen- 42