Russia. What if.

[Stan]

This is for you boneboy.

Well, gop politicians are unlikely to do anything about it, partly to continue their ability to pass things like tax breaks and put in more conservative judges and partly because going against Trump makes primaries risky. So, the likely outcome of collusion is election changes. Even if they dems do well, there is no way they are going to have 60 senators in a few months so impeachment is out.

I think more collusion and even possible vote tampering will come out. But the effects will be moderate.

I think there are three relevant aspects to Putin in this case.

1. He wants to create chaos as long as he's controlling it. Some level of conflict is good for him as he gets to blame Russia's crappy economy on the West. As the West is cemented as the enemy, efforts at reform are dismissed as Western influence. Aiding Trump created more chaos in the U.S. - even if he hadn't won, increasing white nationalism created discord and made the U.S. more inward looking. As it stands, Trump has been great for Putin. NATO has been weakened. The threat of a U.S.-Iran detente has been stopped and Iran has started to cosy up to Russia. The biggest thing still on the table is ending sanctions, which is hard to get past hawkish gop politicians but more of them seem to be falling in line due to the gravy train of corruption money and fear of Trump's base.

2. Putin is really sad that Russia is no longer an empire like it was in his youth. Sure, it sucked for most people but it was great if you were an insider - which Putin was. Rather than trying to diversify and improve the Russian economy, Putin wants to rebuild an empire. Part of this is territorial, like getting the Ukraine and the Baltic states firmly under his wing. Part of it is creating his own kgb/mafia empire of wealth with him at the top handing out favors and taking a cut of everything. He's estimated to have $200 billion in assets tucked away around the world.

3. Related to 1 and 2, Putin is an opportunist. He wanted Crimea, waited for an opportunity, and pulled the trigger on an premade plan. He got what he wanted before anybody knew what was happening and could react. The more chaos and weakness in the world, the more of these he can pull off to rebuild his empire. He must have plans to seize outright parts of the Ukraine and each of the Baltic states and he's waiting for an excuse. Each of these has ethnic Russians from the empire days so he can say he's protecting the safety of Russians. He's not perfect as is seen my some of his Caucasus wars and how Ukraine is proving costly in minor results.

I don't think Putin wants a big war - they don't have the army or the economy for that. He doesn't want a nuclear war - they have ads for advanced weapons but I suspect much of their arsenal has deteriorated the way their nuclear subs have, and winning a nuclear exchange still sucks. I think he just wants enough of a valid threat so that others can't threaten a nuclear strike and hope to be safe from retaliation because of anti-missile systems. With nuclear weapons off the table and opponents distracted, Putin can continue to play empire builder.

We have a president who has refused to ever say anything against Russia. His party has refused to ever do more than express mild concern. There's not much we can do in the short term. Even clear evidence of collusion will not hurt Russia much. Chaos would still prevail in the U.S. Plus, I suspect that Putin doesn't mind his tools being occasionally exposed as it shows how far he is willing to go. Look how he has used nerve gas and radioactive materials in attempted assassinations in Britain. Look how many reporters have fallen out windows, fell down stairs, or committed suicide with blunt instruments.

[bralbovsky]

In the post-MCain era, there will be no war with Russia. Will they work to destroy us without missiles, you betcha.

9-11 interrupted a solid strategy to make Russia as important as Spain. Big history, no real current importance. We left off that policy because we totally panicked (we can discuss on another thread what all went into that, but it's nearly two decades down wrong roads, and no sign of turning back)

Russia has intel, a willingness to cross moral lines (as well as a deep understanding of the power of mortality), plenty of unattractive real estate (attractive real estate too, but not for sale), likely finicky missiles, and Napoleon in charge. Oh, and lots of 20th century fuel.
We will likely lose Moldova, chunks of Georgia and ragged pieces of lots of places before he's through.

He learned a few things last outing:
Toe to toe sucks. The sneakier and more sinister the attack, the better. Russians have a religion: it's getting over on the government, or overseers, or getting away with what the folks in power are trying to regulate. It predates the revolution as a way of life. Putin has discovered that turning it outward makes a pretty good weapon. This, for him, is a good thing, because he doesn't have the cash to make actual military outings successful in the way they need to be successful in the 21st century.

He'll take "contested" pieces of countries, because nothing unifies a people like taking the whole thing, also the UN isn't as pesky (and pesky is as strong as it gets these days) if you call it an internal dispute. Hence Crimea and not the whole Ukraine (also it was made specifically attractive by some strategic decisions earlier).

He'll meddle in everyone's affairs, because there's no way he'll get equal impact on his place in the world by traditional domestic improvement. You don't have to be the most advanced country, you just have to hold your neighbors back to make it look like you're not totally losing the race. Eventually, depopulation, drugs and social malaise, gradual if impaired improvement everywhere else, will make Russia the afterthought it deserves to be.
The end of the game happens when China gives a shit, because they will be in charge. India may annoy them a bit, but it'll be no contest.

So, worrying about an actual war with Russia is an attractive distraction that may seem patriotic (and a little nostalgic) for those who finally see Trump for what he is, but who can't understand in addition to how bad a guy he is that he is being endorsed and abetted by folks whose policies are just toxic. Who will not only take your cash, but seek to change the rules so it doesn't matter how many people live in California or New York, their votes will be meaningless compared to the good folks who live in Idaho.
Worry about a war with Russia instead of seeing that not only was the election stolen, but that all the money you put away (Yes it was originally yours) in social security is about to disappear into nameless pockets (Hint, the pockets don't belong to brown people).
Worry about war with a hollow country instead of seeing free press, and public assembly and separation of church and state go up like tinder touched by a tiki torch.
Worry about war with Russia while whatever rules of business that balance power and population and encourage innovation and the democratization that technology can catalyze are steamrolled or ignored internationally.

Russia is bad. I am in love with Russians right now, and their universal favorite thing about their country is that they are away from it. Do the polling yourself if you like
Having said all that, and I apologize for always saying too much, Russia is like HIV. It's not going to attack and kill us directly. It will weaken us and distract us and stigmatize us, and then we'll succumb to the flu.

[Stan]

[Bonefish]

I've tried reading your post, Bralbovsky. Tried it sober, tried it drunk, tried it high. I'm awfully confused, because you compare Putin to Napoleon, and ensure me that there's no reason to fear. It just.. I don't understand at all. Napoleon was quite possibly the most influential person of the 19th century. He reformed legal codes that a quarter of the world use today. He gave us the metric system, reformed education, spread liberalism throughout Europe, laid the foundation of the German and Italian states, more than doubled the size of the United States. Oh, AND, he reformed military affairs and spent about fifteen years opposed by every major global power, and came out on top until he made the bad mistake of marching into Russia in the winter. If Putin is that influential, I'm just not seeing it. And if we're just gonna play off Napoleon's warmongering, well, comparing putin to "napoleon, but with nuclear missiles" does not in anyway reassure me.

I also don't understand how you think that we had a police to make Russia as "unimportant" as Spain. Last I checked, Spanish power was curbed by... Heh. Anyway, but spain doesn't have oil. And OIL is important enough to change aan empty desert that was best known for camels and horses into glittering oasis. It's enough that the grandson's of a man who once measured his wealth in Camels, Goats and Horses and his military power in men on horses with swords and maybe guns, now command 75 ton tanks, and the finest air supremacy birds the world has known. How exactly do you see the value of oil dissipating in Russia's case?

It's weird. I can think of another dictator, much more recent, who's behavior fit's Putin very well, and the reaction then was much the same: "it's not problem. It's just Austria. Uh, it's just the Sudentland. Uh, it's just the rest of Czechoslovakia... Oh, no, it's Poland. Oh bother."

Russia and Putin are not going away. Ignoring that isn't going to stop Vlad from doing Vlad shit. He lives for this.

[bralbovsky]

If you got " nothing to fear" from my post, my apologies. The immediate question was War with Russia, which is not coming physically to our shores, unless pres bonespurs gets permission from his handlers to stage something.

In some ways, Putin's smarter than Napoleon, because he's learned that face to face confrontations are costly and uncertain, even when the target is overmatched. Perhaps that's an advantage intel service training has over artillery training.

He's already likely the richest guy on the planet, and unless he suddenly overcomes his selfishness about this and begins addressing the social cancers that are devouring Russia instead of actively pretending they'll jut go away, I feel he's no equal to Napoleon, because he clearly doesn't care about what's going on domestically. I guess you need way less infrastructure reform to collect enough resources and soldiers for electronic invasions.

Pieces of Europe should be very worried, but he doesn't want to massacre people, he wants to steal their assets and exert control, so he can continue to steal assets.

I used Spain because of its former importance, to everything. I think it's a fair comparison given Russia's actual structural integrity.
Oil is very important, right now, it's true. Going into the 21st century, I think it's done for. Even if he bleeds the new arctic reserves. Maybe he can hold on for his lifetime, but China's move to renewable signals a shift that's over a quarter century late (coulda been us), and they will set the agenda for energy. If huge interests hadn't made a huge effort to stop that shift worldwide, we'd be there already, and the only thing oil would really be good for is plastic (oops, that's eventually going to turn too.)

So, to recap:
Putin is rich and smart and scary, but he won't come here with tanks.
Can't say the same for folks who live in Poland.
It's our fault, sorry Poland.
Our fear of him is a scam to make us not watch theft and lying here at home.

[Bonefish]

Oh. I see what the problem is: you're operating under the assumption that what I call "war with russia" means "russia invades Iowa". Nah, man, I mean that Russia will engage in military actions that will conflict with US national interests, such as keeping europe peaceful and not all...you know, Europe-y(they have a really bad track record for killin each other at the drop of the hat).

Keeping NATO intact is in our interests. It'd be nice if our NATO allies, especially the Germans, could actually field military formations that are effective. Or just outsource it to us. That's a different topic though.

Oil will not stop being a strategic commodity until there is some alternative with similar energy density. You can't power a 75 ton tank or an air superiority fighter(or drone, because we're in the last days of the manned fighter) with batteries. You can't power heavy equipment for resource extraction off batteries. The closest competitor is probably fusion, especial if Lockheed comes through on their lightweight reactor(even if it's twice or three times bigger and heavier than they initially proposed, it's still small enough to power a plethora of military vehicles, especially naval vehicles and heavy airlift. But petrol powered war machines will probably be around for atleast 50 years or more, because of just how efficient they are compared to batteries(I'm actually lumping a large number of power storage technologies that are not strictly "batteries" under this term").

I don't think Putin has really big designs on Europe. That's very out of character for him, and russian leadership in general. Instead, he wants to create, or recreate, the strategic "near abroad" that has served as Russia's buffer from invasion. Russians are really, really paranoid about Invasions, for some damn reason(Teutonic Knights, Poles, Mongols, the rus themselves, Khazars, etc), and they have long operated with the idea of trading space for time. But... things are not always what people want. Sometimes, events have a way of metasizing out of control.

And right now, we're not helping to stabilize the situation. And it's not just Trump. It's a much more widespread thing than that.

[bralbovsky]

I concur, with the caveat that we might have to wrangle what you mean by "big designs."

I don't think he means to restore the map to 1970, but he's definitely interested in spheres of influence that big or bigger.

Also, strategic and economic impact on oil is slippery, and we should probably separate them as metrics. In the US, nearly 3/4 of oil is transportation. It's less other places, but even if demand drops by 50%, Russia will have to find some other ways to make money. That's probably scary news all by itself, considering what they like to export.

[Bonefish]

"big Designs" means, to me, actual invasion and occupation. That shit is expensive and time consuming. But causing NATO to self destruct? THAT is worth it. And he's doing a good job of it. He's successfully courted Turkey, and I'm not sure how long Turkey is gonna stay a stolid NATO ally. I think the EU dragging their feet over Turkey is starting to sour for the Turks, and joining with Russia may seem a lot more palatable. It's interesting to wonder how long the increasingly islamist Erdrogan and the Russians(who have security issues in their muslim oblasts) will find mutual interests. But who knows?

Then you snatch away Latvia and Estonia, maybe parts of Lithuania and make NATO look inept and ineffective? That could be the straw, right there. I think the Poms and Frogs are pretty stolid, and generally ok allies(France LOVES to do expeditionary shit, so long as it isn't blowing up the things they were paid to build). Germany is fuckin' questionable. They're so damn dependent on NatGas from Russia that they can't really afford to go contrary to the Bear. And since Germans lack the political will to fight(there's a strong association in Germany of militarism and Fascism, go figger, right?!) currently, I'm not sure that they are really reliable allies.

The oil thing is, like I said, not going away. There's growing demand in India and China(a third of the potential global market!), and like I said, for high performance applications? You gotta have oil. No oil, no modern military. No Modern Military, No ability to enforce one's sovereignty. Now, that said, yeah, anything that drops the cost of oil is hurtful to Putin. One credit I can give the Obama administration: they worked with our OPEC "allies" to keep oil production high and costs low. But that's unsustainable, economically(let alone ecologically).

Oh, and Stan, I didn't forget you! I think you're mostly on point, but there's one glaring exception: Crimea wasn't a premade plan. It was a sudden reaction to changing realities. It was a gamble. It paid off very well. But then, the intervention in Eastern Ukraine that followed? Not as good of a gamble. That's the thing, Putin isn't the "master mind" he'd like to make people think he is, and when he lets his impulses get ahead of him... That's what get's scary.

I'm not terrified that anyone is going to purposefulyl start flinging Nukes. I'm terrified that something stupid in somewhere otherwise inconsequential will trigger a cascade of fuckery. Think about Franz ferdinand's assasination: It really wasn't a big deal. But then... the Austrians invaded Serbia, Russia declared war, The germans declared war and next thing you know, Europe is at war. But back then, the technology wasn't as scary. Now? It's terrifying.

[Phoebe]

It helps to have an autocrat in Turkey, you know, if you want to cause the EU problems. It Blows My Mind that we let his bodyguards violently assault people, More Than Once, right here on U.S. soil and did not a darn thing about it. It helps to have an autocrat in the White House, if you want to assault U.S. citizens with impunity. Sorry I know it's about Putin and my topic discipline is poor because I care too little.