[GB] Card Draw Probabilities

[Eliahad]

So I found a Hypergeometric calculator:

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/h ... etric.aspx

And I know that this is going to be incredibly useful in balancing out all the different card types, just by playing around with it. But I don't know how to best use the data I'm gaining.

For example:

In a 30 card deck say there are 12 Blessing cards.

In a 12 Round game (currently with a 4 card starter hand) you will see 16 of those cards, fifteen of which will be useful.

You will draw 6 or less of those cards about 2/3rds of the time. (0.644) and you will draw more than 6 1/3 of the time (0.355)

If you have 6 Terrain cards...you will only see all 6 of those cards in one game 8 times out of a thousand games. (0.008)

This is useful data! I just haven't figured out what to do with it yet.

[Eliahad]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I started inputting the data. I went with 15 draws (for now) because that last round's draw is less useful. Not that it couldn't be a reaction card or something, but I figured this was more useful for the bulk of game play. I will input more as I have time. Feel free to help out

[FlameBlade]

You need to include 0 success for completeness.

[Eliahad]

Oh poop, you're right, I do.

[FlameBlade]

Created a second spreadsheet in that link, complete with links.

Best bit? you can tweak the top left numbers all you want -- modify the size of deck, or modify number of draws. Especially if you're interested
in opening draws to determine a good number of cards in a hand to start with. I have "programmed" the spreadsheet, so y'all can check easily.

[FlameBlade]

Hm, can't see table from my phone. Let me know you can't see 2nd table on computer as well.

[FlameBlade]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... TKYx-Eacts

Try this?

[Eliahad]

Okay, using Flame's beautiful chart. For a 12 round game (which has 15 useful draws).

Here's what I propose for the balance of a God's deck:

12 of their Primary Card Type.
8 of their Secondary Card Type.
5 of their Unique "Godlike" Powers
5 Utility Cards (Probably the ones that EVERYONE gets.)

According to my read of Flame's chart, in this scenario.

Of the 12 Primary Cards, you would draw 4 to 8 of that card. (Usually 5,6, or 7)
Of the 8 Secondary Cards, you would draw 3 - 5 of that card. (Usually 4)
Of the 5 "Godlike Cards" you would likely draw 2 of these cards. (Or 1 or 3)
Of the 5 Utility Cards - you would likely draw 2 of these cards. (Or 1 or 3)

That seems like a good balance of 30 cards to me. As long as we can focus as much of the personality of the God into the Primary cards as possible, I think we'll have a great feel, every game!

tl;dr Flame is awesome!

[Mike]

I'm in.

Does Primary, Secondary, Unique also roughly correspond to the old GP costs of cards?

[Eliahad]

Yeah, kind of? We might want to consider assigning some of these abilities an HP 'cost' that we use to determine relative power levels.

For example, move hero 1 hex is worth 3,because a Sprint is usually going to cost 2 + movement cost.

[Mike]

Good call.

With our recent talk of "doubling up" on some cards, I'm thinking that the common cards and low cost cards are a good place to do that.

[FlameBlade]

[Eliahad]

I think those 5 "Utility Cards" are a good place to put them. I've got one that I'll put over in the Greek Artifact thread.

[FlameBlade]

So, from what I see in the designs, there can be two layers of complexity to the cards.

First of all, we have all sort of choices for types of cards.

Second layer, we have strength of the cards.

By mixing up the layers, I think we can keep things balanced, but create distinct-looking god/goddess.

For example -- for some gods, you could have uberpowers spread across multiple types. Some other gods, you could concentrate it into
a type.

Could be the case that a god might have only 5 terrains, but all uber-powers -- for instance.

I can easily see having slightly simpler design for original set, then become very creative with expansion sets, easily getting us as many gods as we like.