International Politics

[Stan]

For random comments that I (or anyone else) doesn't feel like starting a whole thread for.

China made a real move against North Korea. There's been signs that China wishes NK would stop being so NK. But China has mostly let them get away with stuff. I suspect that there are different camps in China with different opinions as they don't seem totally lockstep. I think they like to pretend to agree with the international community while enjoying that NK costs SK and the U.S resources. But China has been propping up NK financially for decades and Chinese public opinion doesn't care for NK. The latest regime of the last ~6 years has broken it's leash, doesn't act respectful of China and kills politicians who China likes. The latest missile test and killing of Kim Jon Nam (who lived in a Chinese territory, so must have been cool with China) with an internationally condemned nerve agent are too much. China has stopped buying NK coal (as they has said they would a while ago) which, at >$1 billion/year, isn't much but is NK's largest export. This could be the beginning of the end game.

It reminds me of Pearl Harbor, which is surprising that it was surprising - I think racism made us under estimate their ability but an attack was deemed likely. The big move before the big attack was when the U.S. stopped selling oil to Japan. Japan had to either slow down in China and give back French colonies or go to war to grab oil in Dutch Indonesia. Similarly, the loss of income to NK might start triggering things. I suspect that NK generals have realized just how far they've fallen behind and that they can't take on everyone. There's a good chance that Kim Jong Un will die this year, though it might officially be an accident. Then, generals will travel to China and promise to cool things down with a few statements about their nuke program. But NK has been under heavy propaganda and a cult of personality for ~70 years. I'm not sure how much its citizens believe and how much they play along as being tortured to death in a camp is a very really possibility. But, if the dynasty ends, they might say fuck it, and the whole country will turn into a blood bath. It's not definitely going to happen. It's more likely if Kim Jong Un's death isn't followed up with a quick succession that all the general get behind, a chaotic power grab might spark a revolt. But Kim Jong Un has been reckless with regard to China in the past so may not back down and china might be sick of his shit. Damn. I should have stayed in the dead pool.

[Phoebe]

This is so interesting. I can't imagine what is going to happen but clearly China has made a bold departure from how it responded in the past. It could be because they need to maintain ties with other nations that will be outraged about the assassination, far more than they need to deal favorably with NK.

[Stan]

Pakistan will grant citizenship and basic rights to their tribal areas near Afghanistan. Part of the issue with fighting in Pakistan and Afghanistan is Pakistan doesn't think much of those areas. My impression is that they see the areas something along the lines of 1930's cartoons of people in Appalachia - always feuding and fighting with little civilization. Pakistan didn't get really serious about the Taliban (which is partially a Pashtun independence issue) until violence started spilling out in civilized areas of Pakistan.

Hopefully, providing schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure will help residents feel tied into the the world.

[Bonefish]