Trump

[Elle]

Usually in campaign season we get calls like crazy on the land line. This year we hadn't fielded too many, and then all of a sudden we are being called at least once per day. My tiny sample including my parents and work friends indicates that in the past week polling in our Congressional district suddenly took an uptick. The polls are different outfits, asking slightly different questions, though I may not be getting all of it because I already voted, thus limiting answers. I thought the races in my district were fairly well-settled one way or the other, so I wonder why the change. Are they not so settled after all?

[poorpete]

We've been getting about four unknown calls in the evening, but we never answer, unless the incessant ringing of the phone will wake the baby.

[Bluedevyl]

I'm totally going to start calling you pretending to be a pollster... maybe you'll pick up eventually and we can just chat!

[Elle]

LOL I should call people pretending to be a pollster. I don't want to burn in hell tho. Sigh, I remember when prank calls were harmless fun.

[Reika]

It'll be interesting to see if anything comes out of this:

http://occupydemocrats.com/2016/10/24/t ... complaint/

[Eliahad]

My ballot has been filled out. I'll drop it off tomorrow! Hooray!

[Cazmonster]

I have to wait for Taco Tuesday itself to metaphorically punch Trump in his wrinkled, burnt umber scrotum.

[Ronster]

I am torn about early voting. It's like getting Christmas early. I mean it seems to have more value on election night if your vote wasn't already cast and counted...Probably early voting anyway.

[Elle]

Early voting for Gary Johnson, AM I RIGHT????

[Elle]

An interesting little tidbit: http://www.demographicspro.com/insights ... on-twitter

Not enough to definitively prove my thesis but certainly suggestive.

[Elle]

The more I learn about Alt Reyeght ideology (the real thing inspiring the movement, not the bs Milo version) the clearer it is that Trump's whole approach is organized around this ideology. (His sons are so into this, I wonder that they can even truly tolerate their brother in law.) Trump's in a way the best standard bearer this movement could have dreamt up, since he was already so famous and desirous of being President, but in other ways the worst, since to make their message truly dangerous/effective they have to make a leftist, populist appeal and win women voters, and a guy who pays no taxes and offends/scares women is not the one.

What scares me is that these people are not going away, and the closer to the mainstream they get, the more they can get funding. Their biggest weaknesses are that they alienate women voters, and they don't seem very patriotic or safe. They don't seem to grasp that last one, but maybe someday they will, or they'll get an appealing candidate who is former military. They get their woman problem and are trying to solve it (witness things like the flurry of draftRdaughterz memes), but they can't because they only know how to appeal to feminist hating men like themselves. They think women are stupid and have no clue what we value. They think we need a good alpha to submit to, and figured Trump was that guy. If they ever do figure out what an appealing alpha male really looks and talks like (hint: JFK) and realize women don't actually want to recreate the Taliban either at home or in the nation (you'd think the Nazi obsession could have taught them something, but no), then I'll be actually afraid of them as a political force.

[Elle]

And riddle me this, alt-righters who hunger for a virile, putinesque white fascist leader:
Why are the intellectual leading lights of your own movement either gay or only interested in non-white women (or men), and not one of you looks like the pure example of Nordic manhood you supposedly prize? Methinks nobody gets so damn anxious about their race and their manly phallus unless there's something to be anxious about.

[Mrs.Darcs]

The polls are tightening and it's giving me horrible anxiety and yet I can't stop checking 538

Help me.

[Eliahad]

I'll try!

Of course the polls are going to tighten as we get close to election day. More people will have made up their mind as undecideds figure out the things that are most important to their needs and desires. However, polls cannot take into account ground game and turnout on election day itself. They can predict, but not know until after the election. Trump has no ground game that I'm aware of. He lost the caucuses in CO because he didn't have enough organization to get people to actually go to the caucus. It is my hope that his lack of organization and counting on his 'image' will fail him on election day when the democrats mobilize and turn out in good numbers on actual voting day.

Or this is wishful thinking. But I think Hillary's got this one.

[Mike]

The anxiety you mention will drive a larger turnout of Hillary voters on election day.

Although, Republicans have similar anxieties about Crooked Hillary getting into office. It's weird... they are honestly as scared of a Clinton presidency as you or I are of Trump.

While they both have low favorability ratings, Trump's are much lower... Trump at 34% yesterday and Clinton at 43%. Trump at 69% among Republicans; Clinton at 78% among Democrats. Indicating a less enthusiastic base for Trump.

Clinton is at 72-73% on FiveThirtyEight last time I looked, and Obama was at 78-79% at this same time last year. They are different races, with different levels of uncertainty, but the point is that Dave is right... tightening at the end is what these races do.

I can't tell you not to worry, but Clinton is still more than twice as likely to win. On the other hand, playing Russian Roulette with two bullets in the cylinder isn't exactly comforting either.

[Elle]

Let's pretend that both Hillary and Donald are equally morally failed human beings, and that their moral failures would have an equal effect on their governance of the nation. If you are an anti-abortion voter who literally cares about nothing else, or the else you care about is ridding the country of immigrants, Muslims, and anyone else Trump dislikes, then and ONLY then does it make sense to pick him. I don't get it. It's a HOT November day and Trump is a tool of Putin's Russia. His victory means the ascendancy of white supremacist rule and a continued expansion of the transfer of wealth to the already wealthy, wildly and obscenely out of proportion with their actual contributions to generating wealth. He promises to sue and jail journalists who publish things that he doesn't happen to like or find convenient. If that's your vision of America all I can say is that it is radically different from my own and I do not understand how we could even be products of the same culture and educational system.

[Tahlvin]

Most of the people I know who have voted or are planning to vote for Trump think he's a deeply flawed candidate, but they're voting against Hillary more than they are voting for him. And it seems to fall into one of several situations:

One, they are what I like to call one-issue voters, and Hillary is on the opposite side of that issue. It's usually either abortion or guns as the issue, and the thought of Hillary nominating a supreme court justice who is opposed to those issues motivates them to vote for the candidate who has the best chance of defeating Hillary.

The other case of Trump voters in personally know of falls into the category of people who feel Trump will be checked and balanced much more as president than will Hillary. To them, Hillary represents a status quo they few as corrupt and flawed. Trump is crazy, and enough people in Congress are worried about what he would do to the office of president that they'll stand up to him more than they would stand up to Hillary. At least that's what they are hoping will happen.

Very few people I know personally who are voting for Trump are doing so because they support his views on immigration or are looking for a return of white power, etc.

[Elle]

[akiva]

[Tahlvin]