Nerd Pride Radio

Rules: Guess the Friday through Sunday domestic gross (as reported in the actuals from Box Office Mojo) for the number one movie for the weekend of July 12, 2019. You get points based on the difference between your guess and the actual opening (whether its higher or lower). You don't have to guess a particular movie, just a dollar amount. You can not guess an amount that has already been guessed by someone for this week. Once you've made a guess, you can't change it. Guesses have to be submitted by midnight the Wednesday before the opening. Guesses must be rounded to the nearest million dollars.

Results will be cumulative week to week for the current season for everyone that continues to play. If you miss a week, you can still play, but your score is 125% of the worst actual score awarded on the week you missed. If you miss two weeks in a row, you're out of the metagame, but still welcome to play the weekly game. There are three seasons per calendar year: (1) January 1 - the weekend before Memorial Day weekend; (2) Memorial Day weekend - Labor Day weekend; and (3) the weekend after Labor Day weekend - December 31.

Please feel free to discuss prospects and speculation- this is highly encouraged. But once you post up a guess, it cannot be changed.

I'll normally post this up on the Monday before the opening weekend, and will update the cumulative scores when the actuals are released (usually Tuesday afternoon).

Past Winners:
Summer 2018: Mike
Spring 2018: buckett
Winter 2017: Zombie
Summer 2017: poorpete
Winter 2018: Kyle
Spring 2019: Mike

Wide release movies opening this week include:
Crawl
Stuber

Season 19:2 Scores (UPDATED):
Kyle- 94
Zen- 96
buckett- 98
poorpete- 105
Mike- 137

Guesses (in millions):
poorpete- 44
Kyle- 46
bucket- 48
Zen- 50
Mike- 54

$46 million

$50 Mil

54

Metascores updated.

$44

Damn.

48

Okay, here's my logic: there's not a lot of 6-day 4th of July openers to compare to, but...

The Amazing Spider-Man opened Tues, July 3rd. Made 62M over the 3-day, and had a drop of 44.2% in its second week.

Transformers also opened on Tues, July 3rd. It made 71M over the 3-day, and then dropped 47.5% in its 2nd week.

Using those numbers would put Far from Home at 49-52 for its second week. But Far from Home has better reviews than the other two, AND it has no serious competition in week 2, whereas Transformers lost out to a Harry Potter movie in its second week, and Amazing Spider-Man was outdone by an Ice Age movie. So I bumped to 54, looking at a 42% drop.

Of course, this one is bigger than either of the other two by a fair piece, so no guarantee that it has those legs, but I'm desperate.

That’s all very well thought out. But you should all adopt the poorpete strategy for best results.

Weekend actuals for Toy Story 4 aka Spider-Man: Far From Home- $45,353,359

Results-
poorpete- 1
Kyle- 1
bucket- 3
Zen- 5
Mike- 9