Nerd Pride Radio

Rules: Guess the Friday through Sunday domestic gross (as reported in the actuals from Box Office Mojo) for the number one movie for the weekend of May 18-20. You get points based on the difference between your guess and the actual opening (whether its higher or lower). You don't have to guess a particular movie, just a dollar amount. You can not guess an amount that has already been guessed by someone for this week. Once you've made a guess, you can't change it. Guesses have to be submitted by midnight the Wednesday before the opening. Guesses must be rounded to the nearest million dollars.

Results will be cumulative week to week for the current season for everyone that continues to play. If you miss a week, you can still play, but your score is 125% of the worst actual score awarded on the week you missed. If you miss two weeks in a row, you're out of the metagame, but still welcome to play the weekly game. There are three seasons per calendar year: (1) January 1 - the weekend before Memorial Day; (2) Memorial Day weekend - Labor Day weekend; and (3) the weekend after Labor Day weekend - December 31.

Lifetime scores will be tracked as long as there are two people that have not been eliminated (by missing two weeks in a row). In the even that only one person remains in the lifetime scores, that person will be deemed King of Movie Mountain, and the lifetime scores will reset beginning with the next week. The King of Movie Mountain's reign lasts until a new King of Movie Mountain is named through the application of these rules.

Please feel free to discuss prospects and speculation- this is highly encouraged. But once you post up a guess, it cannot be changed.

I'll normally post this up on the Monday before the opening weekend, and will update the cumulative scores when the actuals are released (usually Tuesday afternoon).

Wide release movies opening this week include:
Deadpool 2
Book Club
Showdogs

Season 18:1 Scores (UPDATED):
buckett- 181
Mike- 190
Zombie- 204
Zen- 203
Kyle- 211
poorpete- 219

Lifetime Scores (UPDATED):
Zombie- 469
buckett- 499
Kyle- 499
poorpete- 499
Zen- 545

Guesses (in millions):
Zen- 125
Zombie- 142
buckett- 147
Kyle- 150
Mike- 155
poorpete- 170

$150 million.

$125 Mil

$170

155

Showdogs, baby! It's my favorite franchise.

147

142

Metascores updated.

I think we all screwed up and Pete's gonna take this. Everyone else's numbers look like the first Deadpool's numbers adjusted for inflation and then maybe add a little.

Deadpool 1 was released in February, and Rated R or not, this one is a summer blockbuster, with a HUGE buildup and lots of traditional and viral marketing. I shoulda said 190.

I could be wrong, but I still shoulda said 190.

I'll be happy to be right, but Rated R is a big barrier that may keep it from overperforming.

But the first one was also the highest grossing opening of all time for a rated R movie. I pitched 150 thinking that it would be too high for everyone and yall would go under me- then I hoped for a breakout weekend. Pete fucked me on this.

Adjusted for inflation, Deadpool made 141 in February. My 155 is pretty reasonable, but I think your 170 is way better.

My thinking was that the build up for this one was less than the first one, and it had iffy reviews going in.

Having said that, it looks like I still went too low. Pretty big Friday numbers.

They're saying 130 now.

FWIW...
Rotten Tomatoes critic/viewers
Deadpool 83/90
Deadpool 2 84/85

Metacritic critic/viewers
Deadpool 65/8.1
Deadpool 2 66/7.9

Of course 2 is barely open yet, so maybe it's front-loaded with fanboys. Who knows. I'm wildly wrong all the time. Plus a massive open is good for me, so I'm not objective. But I have a gut feeling. That counts.

Mojo was bearish at first saying 130s, but updated to note it's opening is similar to those which went 200+.

Yeah. I was talking about all the talk a few months back about going poorly. I'm happy that the actual reviews are good. I was a big fan of the first one.

Deadline now has 132+. The plus sign at deadline usually means that it could easily go way higher.