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Even odds in betting markets on Trump v Clinton

Bad enough if the man is elected. So much worse if there is no check on him.

Even FiveThirtyEight's Forecast Bot just put Trump's chances at 49%.

Ron is still blasé. I already finished the captain & coke, am on my fifth packet of Halloween licorice and thinking of taking a nap until Ron wakes me up with info. He is unflappable.

Trump at a 60% chance now.

Well, it seems really likely he will win WI or MI. How does he even lose of that happens? Most of the liberal vote ftom Iowa seems to be in already so Trump will win it.

Wheee!!! David Brooks is like a warm cuddly blanket right now. He is explaining it all to me. I wrested the remote so I could get David Brooks back.

Basically just laying here letting the soothingly uttered truths of David Brooks wash gently over me. She's apparently losing PA; I think it's over. Staying up to hear Trump and Clinton speak. Hope he can be gracious. I'm not happy to have that morning convo with kids about not discussing opinions on the results with people.

I want someone to hug me and tell me it's gonna be ok. But it's not

David Brooks is everything; he's like my Dad and the reason I can sleep now. Love him. BTW he went there and used the "evil" word, to the extent it's about race. He's the kind of Republican I grew up with.

What the fuck is wrong with this country?

I feel like we just lost a game of Secret Hitler.

Rather surprised. Forced myself to go to sleep, then woke up and couldn't sleep without checking.

Still not official but Trump has the unexpected lead in much of the rust belt, so don't see how Clinton could win. All the negatives in the news worked. I can't help but think Sanders would have won on the national level if he was the candidate.

Stock market will drop big tomorrow.
There will be a big hit in national prestige.
Without any checks, tax code will be radically altered, health care will be screwed for many, EPA and many other departments will be gutted.

It's official.

Just woke up. Googling is going to hurt, but here goes...

I'd love to see the comparison of the exit polls for this year vs. previous presidential elections. I heard a comment at one point last night that Trump was doing better among Hispanic voters than Romney did in 2012, which seems weird given his immigration stance. Did that hold throughout the night? Has that held across previous elections, or was 2012 a fluke and 2016 more representative of past elections? I know I could go out and search that stuff down, but I don't have the time or energy, so I'll wait for someone else to do it and look at their numbers.

I also will be interested in the results of the post mortem as to why Clinton lost. She lost the white female vote to Trump by 10%, her own demographic. Why was that? And don't just say it is racism/sexism. I admit that was a factor, but probably not as big as some people think, and perhaps bigger than other people think. But how much of a factor were the $250,000 Goldman-Sachs speeches? How much did Clinton's support for trade agreements have an impact with rural voters or traditional manufacturing areas hit hard by the changing economy? And 8% of women who identified as Democratic voted for Trump, the same percentage as Republican women who broke for Clinton; and 10% of Democratic men broke for Trump, as opposed to 6% of Republican men breaking for Clinton. So the pull of voting for a woman was less than the pull for voting for party.

This is the sort of thing I find interesting:
Which best describes your vote for president today?
I strongly favor my candidate (41% of voters) Clinton +11%
I like my candidate but with reservations (32% of voters) Trump +1%
I dislike the other candidates (25% of voters) Trump +12%

Like I said elsewhere, don't discount the people who are voting for Trump because they don't like Clinton.

I'm not sure how much this actually occurred, but if it did: if there were Democrats who voted for Trump in open primaries because they thought he would be easier for Clinton to beat in the general election, how the hell are they feeling today? Had she faced someone like Ted Cruz, she may still have lost, but at least we wouldn't have Donald Trump as president-elect.

Well, here's hoping we survive the next 4 years...

Another interesting comment I heard related to people who voted third party. If your argument is that a vote for a third party candidate was a vote for Trump over Clinton, in order for that to be true, ALL of those third party votes would have had to go to Clinton. Somewhat more likely is that they would have split 50/50 between the candidates, or in similar proportions as the popular vote. More realistically, most of those third party votes were for the libertarians, who tend to vote Republican more than Democratic, so it's more likely they would have voted for Trump over Clinton and therefore would have just increased his margin of victory.

Polling evidence suggests that without the third parties as an option, their votes would have been about evenly split.

My secretary, aunt, sister in law (not the one Mike knows), cousins, and numerous other female relatives of my husband are Trump voters. They do not feel particularly threatened by his sexism. They like Melania. They all think Hillary is a liar who would say anything to grasp power, which is a grave sin in a woman. Except for my secretary, with whom I don't discuss these details, they're all pro-life and pro-death penalty (presumably due to Jesus), anti-immigrant and unabashedly racist, as far as I have heard. So... which factor? I don't know. They've never liked Hillary.

Ron still blasé but in shock. Owes crazy brother small sum of money. I'm trying to avoid all uncharitable thoughts but it's hard when your daughter is asking why ass grabbing is sanctioned by her nation now and the answer is: honey, your uncle just wants to pay less in taxes if he ever actually becomes that wealthy. Irony: my daughter will probably be enjoying the tax benefits more than any Trump voter I know.

We need, as a country, a few days to mourn the future we thought we were getting. Then we will phoenix the hell out of this bitch and overcome as we always do when bad shit goes down.

It'll be interesting to see how internal issues within the gop pan out. Some disavowed Trump; some of those stuck with it. Plus, Trump isn't that conservative in some ways - he's not religious and, prior to the campaign, didn't have many core conservative positions.