Nerd Pride Radio

What is most likely to bring about the extinction of the human race? How can it be avoided?

Evolution. We're going to evolve into something other than human, stronger, better. And we don't want to avoid it; we want to welcome their arrival!

What are the likely contenders? Nuclear winter, or similar but caused by asteroid? A bad disease might kill a lot of us but you'd think it wouldn't completely wipe out the humans.

The end of humanity will come about when some future engineered branch of humanity no longer identifies as human and over generations supplants those who DO identify as humans.

Although technically, those whatever-they-ares will still be an offshoot/creation of humanity, so... it's kind of a gray area.

Rock from space causing a mass extinction. It's 100% probable on a long enough time line.

It is true that a big enough rock is almost certain to be on a collision course with Earth somewhere in our future, but I imagine that if it doesn't hit us in the next 500 years,then by the time it comes around we will be in a position where A) we can detect it and avoid it before it kills us and B) we'll be in a position where a few years of nuclear winter and a complete overhaul of the Earth's ecosphere won't mean a death sentence to the human race.

But then I'm an optimist.

Ya, volcano going to be a problem for someones, someday. And it already caused a terrible movie to be made (cf. Salt and Fire).

I really don't think any one thing can possibly cause human extinction.

Planet Killer? Well, as you pointed out, Mike(thanks for mansplaining. Jeez!), if it doesn't hit us in a narrow window of time where we cannot prepare for it, there's little reason to believe we couldn't neutralize the threat. I honestly think we will see interplanetary travel on an impressive scale in the next 20 years, and probably self-sustaining colonies within 50, and quite possibly terraforming withing 100. The tech is there, it just needs the political will. And if we get into interplanetary travel, the ability to detect and intercept a PKA is pretty good.

Vulcanism is doubtful. Neither Thera nor Krakatoa were sufficient. In fact, the wikipage on volcanic eruption index lists about a dozen that have happened in the past 1000 years. It'd be bad, but probably not extinction level.

Nuclear warfare is doubtful as well. There's a lot to if, but i's sufficient to say that the majority of nukes will be airbursts, with limited ejecta, and a much smaller casualty rate than we commonly assume. "city-killer" nukes have been out of style for about 50 to 60 years now, and while there are some major population centers likely to get hit, the majority of the nukes will be targeting silos and airstrips capable of hitting bombers. It'd be bad, but not extinction level.

Evolution is questionable: Right now, there's very little physical evolution that a human can undergo that would increase it's likelihood of not only reproducing, but of having it's spawn reproduce. Being rich is a far greater factor. There is the chance of us genetically engineering something, but.. honestly, I don't think that's gonna work very well. I just don't think the conditions in the world are such that someone who is faster, stronger, and, smarter than the majority can necessarily overcome the advantages of a stable two parent household for raising children.

AI could be a starter. Maybe. Right now, it's just not there yet. I don't know how fast it will evolve, but... yeah, it's not a threat. Right now. Atleast not a direct threat.

Climate change? Well, no. Not only have humans survived harsher climatic conditions than those proposed by the IPCC if we don't halt emissions, we were litterally born in them and thrived during them.

No, I don't think one event can kill us off. It'd take a couple. Like say massive warfare over resources and mass migrations as a result of climate change, leading to nuclear war. Then something like a PK or AI uprising can get us.

Fortunately, we are closer than ever. There's some really amazing gains in fusion research(around the beginning of the year I got to smoke weed with a guy who works at Oak Ridge, I think, making superconductors. Fascinating conversations about Tokamaks), and NASA ha finally admitted I am right, and that nuclear rockets are the only way to get to mars.

This made me wish all of Kyle's deep thoughts were lyrics from one or more songs, but doesn't look like the case.

[Deep Thoughts] I am a Hurricane
[Deep Thoughts] World serves it's own needs
[Deep Thoughts] Birthday party cheesecake jellybean boom