Poller Coaster

[Mike]

I know it's not healthy for me, but I check Fivethirtyeight's election forecast way too often.

Since they launched it back in August, the presidential forecast has consistently given Trump a 22 percent chance of winning. Sometimes at first, it would bump up to 23 or 24, or maybe down to 21. But was pretty consistent. And it takes a little practice to not fret over every little adjustment. A point or two means nothing when new polls are being added and old ones dropping out every day. But over time, it slowly got to where it fluctuated between 21 and 22 all the time. Occasionally it would pop up to 23, but then drop right back after the next poll.

Now today, we have the first polls conducted entirely post-tax-reveal. And his chances dropped to 20 for the first time. Again, a point or two means nothing, and having 1 bullet plus 4 empty chambers is still really frightening, but... I can't help but feel a little heartened anyway. By next week, we'll have the first post-debate polls. And I know I shouldn't pin my hopes on anything, but... fingers crossed anyway.

[FlameBlade]

I used to follow 538 religiously until Nate went on full on assault on those who criticize his models. Sometimes, I just wonder if he cherry pick a bit too much.

[Mike]

I've heard plenty of criticism of Nate for being too defensive about his model, and I get that. He's super-abrasive, and the least likable on anyone on their politics podcast. What exactly do you mean by cherry picking in this case? I haven't heard that charge against him before, so I am curious.

[FlameBlade]

Hard to really explain, but on non election stuff, he has a tendency to do some polling in way the frames things in a particular way.

Kinda like omitting some of bigger picture necessary to frame topics correctly. It's has been interesting to watch him in the past few years, and, yes, he has gotten really abrasive about criticism, instead of letting his work stand. Would have been better if he takes more pride in his works, and actually tried to educate us a bit better about statistics.

[Phoebe]

After 2016 I have found that I don't look at the polls at all this time. I don't want to form any impressions or even tentative conclusions about them. I see it go by sometimes when my friends communicate them. I don't have a lot of faith in any of it at this point. I'm trying to find time to write postcards to people and failing.

[Eliahad]

I keep looking at it. The Biden forecasted chance keeps going up...

[Mike]

I know. However, it can't account for cheating, but otherwise, Trump keeps digging himself deeper.