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Nerd Pride Radio The home of the Nerd Pride Radio podcast and other acts of nerdity. 2017-09-30T08:59:28-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/feed.php?f=7&t=1613 2017-09-30T08:59:28-06:00 2017-09-30T08:59:28-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1613&p=28550#p28550 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] Counter-intuitive babies]]> Statistics: Posted by Mike — Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:59 am

]]> 2017-09-30T04:59:25-06:00 2017-09-30T04:59:25-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1613&p=28531#p28531 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] Counter-intuitive babies]]>


Just a thought.

Statistics: Posted by FlameBlade — Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:59 am

]]> 2017-09-29T16:21:11-06:00 2017-09-29T16:21:11-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1613&p=28502#p28502 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] Counter-intuitive babies]]>


End invis spell.

Statistics: Posted by FlameBlade — Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:21 pm

]]> 2017-09-29T15:43:04-06:00 2017-09-29T15:43:04-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1613&p=28492#p28492 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] Counter-intuitive babies]]>
My intuition would have been wholly wrong.

Statistics: Posted by FlameBlade — Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:43 pm

]]> 2017-09-29T15:27:53-06:00 2017-09-29T15:27:53-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1613&p=28485#p28485 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] Counter-intuitive babies]]>
Something something Bayesian. Gonna need paper and pencil for this one.

Statistics: Posted by FlameBlade — Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:27 pm

]]> 2017-09-29T15:13:31-06:00 2017-09-29T15:13:31-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1613&p=28483#p28483 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] Counter-intuitive babies]]>
Now what are the odd that the newborn is a boy given that a randomly selected baby was a boy?

[I may not have explained the problem clearly enough.]

Statistics: Posted by Mike — Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:13 pm

]]> 2017-09-29T14:43:13-06:00 2017-09-29T14:43:13-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1613&p=28472#p28472 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] Counter-intuitive babies]]>
Two cases.

2 boys, k+1 girls. Pr = 2/k+1+2

And

3 boys, k girls. Pr = 3/ k+3

So, probability is

2.5/k+3.

Fine.

5/2k+6

Statistics: Posted by FlameBlade — Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:43 pm

]]> 2017-09-29T09:12:22-06:00 2017-09-29T09:12:22-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1613&p=28438#p28438 <![CDATA[[Puzzler] Counter-intuitive babies]]>
A hospital nursery contains 2 baby boys and some unknown number of baby girls. A new baby is born and placed in the nursery. Shortly after, a random baby is picked from the nursery (so this includes all the original babies and the newborn). The randomly selected baby happens to be a boy.

Given all of that, what is the probability that the newborn baby was a boy?

The counter-intuitive part: The answer is NOT 50%. There is a single, definite answer, and the problem gives you enough information to determine what that is.

Statistics: Posted by Mike — Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:12 am

]]>