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Nerd Pride Radio The home of the Nerd Pride Radio podcast and other acts of nerdity. 2017-07-20T22:55:02-05:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/feed.php?f=7&t=1360 2017-07-20T22:55:02-05:00 2017-07-20T22:55:02-05:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1360&p=23832#p23832 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] A Pair of Aces]]>
Phoebe, it has to do with counting the number of possible cases, and not just the cards left in the draw pile. If you lay out all the possible outcomes (since this is small enough to do), you will see that there are more possible outcomes than just the next draw.

Your feelings about this puzzle remind me of a different one. The shell game probability puzzle never sat well with me. (The one where the huckster puts a pea under one shell. Mixes them up, and then reveals one of the shells that doesn't hold the pea. The odds of picking the correct shell do NOT increase to 50%, but even after seeing the explanation, it still bugs me.)

Statistics: Posted by Eliahad — Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:55 pm

]]> 2017-07-20T22:40:23-05:00 2017-07-20T22:40:23-05:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1360&p=23828#p23828 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] A Pair of Aces]]> Statistics: Posted by Phoebe — Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:40 pm

]]> 2017-07-20T16:59:16-05:00 2017-07-20T16:59:16-05:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1360&p=23823#p23823 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] A Pair of Aces]]> Statistics: Posted by Zen — Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:59 pm

]]> 2017-07-20T16:08:06-05:00 2017-07-20T16:08:06-05:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1360&p=23821#p23821 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] A Pair of Aces]]> Statistics: Posted by Mike — Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:08 pm

]]> 2017-07-20T15:46:31-05:00 2017-07-20T15:46:31-05:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1360&p=23820#p23820 <![CDATA[Re: [Puzzler] A Pair of Aces]]>
Okay, more seriously...

If you know one card is an Ace:



If you know 1 card is the Ace of Spades.

Statistics: Posted by Zen — Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:46 pm

]]> 2017-07-20T11:44:51-05:00 2017-07-20T11:44:51-05:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=1360&p=23809#p23809 <![CDATA[[Puzzler] A Pair of Aces]]>
You have four cards: Ace of Spades, Ace of Hearts, 2 of Spades, 2 of Hearts.

The four cards are shuffled, and you draw two cards at random.

Two scenarios:

1) What is the chance that you drew a pair of Aces if you know that at least one card is an Ace?

2) What is the chance that you drew a pair of Aces if you know that one card is the Ace of Spades?

Statistics: Posted by Mike — Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:44 am

]]>