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Nerd Pride Radio The home of the Nerd Pride Radio podcast and other acts of nerdity. 2018-09-07T09:24:33-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/feed.php?f=5&t=2388 2018-09-07T09:24:33-06:00 2018-09-07T09:24:33-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42782#p42782 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by Phoebe — Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:24 am


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2018-09-06T19:53:15-06:00 2018-09-06T19:53:15-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42761#p42761 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]>
Then you snatch away Latvia and Estonia, maybe parts of Lithuania and make NATO look inept and ineffective? That could be the straw, right there. I think the Poms and Frogs are pretty stolid, and generally ok allies(France LOVES to do expeditionary shit, so long as it isn't blowing up the things they were paid to build). Germany is fuckin' questionable. They're so damn dependent on NatGas from Russia that they can't really afford to go contrary to the Bear. And since Germans lack the political will to fight(there's a strong association in Germany of militarism and Fascism, go figger, right?!) currently, I'm not sure that they are really reliable allies.

The oil thing is, like I said, not going away. There's growing demand in India and China(a third of the potential global market!), and like I said, for high performance applications? You gotta have oil. No oil, no modern military. No Modern Military, No ability to enforce one's sovereignty. Now, that said, yeah, anything that drops the cost of oil is hurtful to Putin. One credit I can give the Obama administration: they worked with our OPEC "allies" to keep oil production high and costs low. But that's unsustainable, economically(let alone ecologically).

Oh, and Stan, I didn't forget you! I think you're mostly on point, but there's one glaring exception: Crimea wasn't a premade plan. It was a sudden reaction to changing realities. It was a gamble. It paid off very well. But then, the intervention in Eastern Ukraine that followed? Not as good of a gamble. That's the thing, Putin isn't the "master mind" he'd like to make people think he is, and when he lets his impulses get ahead of him... That's what get's scary.

I'm not terrified that anyone is going to purposefulyl start flinging Nukes. I'm terrified that something stupid in somewhere otherwise inconsequential will trigger a cascade of fuckery. Think about Franz ferdinand's assasination: It really wasn't a big deal. But then... the Austrians invaded Serbia, Russia declared war, The germans declared war and next thing you know, Europe is at war. But back then, the technology wasn't as scary. Now? It's terrifying.

Statistics: Posted by Bonefish — Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:53 pm


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2018-09-06T19:20:56-06:00 2018-09-06T19:20:56-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42760#p42760 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]>
I don't think he means to restore the map to 1970, but he's definitely interested in spheres of influence that big or bigger.

Also, strategic and economic impact on oil is slippery, and we should probably separate them as metrics. In the US, nearly 3/4 of oil is transportation. It's less other places, but even if demand drops by 50%, Russia will have to find some other ways to make money. That's probably scary news all by itself, considering what they like to export.

Statistics: Posted by bralbovsky — Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:20 pm


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2018-09-06T18:53:56-06:00 2018-09-06T18:53:56-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42759#p42759 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]>
Keeping NATO intact is in our interests. It'd be nice if our NATO allies, especially the Germans, could actually field military formations that are effective. Or just outsource it to us. That's a different topic though.

Oil will not stop being a strategic commodity until there is some alternative with similar energy density. You can't power a 75 ton tank or an air superiority fighter(or drone, because we're in the last days of the manned fighter) with batteries. You can't power heavy equipment for resource extraction off batteries. The closest competitor is probably fusion, especial if Lockheed comes through on their lightweight reactor(even if it's twice or three times bigger and heavier than they initially proposed, it's still small enough to power a plethora of military vehicles, especially naval vehicles and heavy airlift. But petrol powered war machines will probably be around for atleast 50 years or more, because of just how efficient they are compared to batteries(I'm actually lumping a large number of power storage technologies that are not strictly "batteries" under this term").

I don't think Putin has really big designs on Europe. That's very out of character for him, and russian leadership in general. Instead, he wants to create, or recreate, the strategic "near abroad" that has served as Russia's buffer from invasion. Russians are really, really paranoid about Invasions, for some damn reason(Teutonic Knights, Poles, Mongols, the rus themselves, Khazars, etc), and they have long operated with the idea of trading space for time. But... things are not always what people want. Sometimes, events have a way of metasizing out of control.

And right now, we're not helping to stabilize the situation. And it's not just Trump. It's a much more widespread thing than that.

Statistics: Posted by Bonefish — Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:53 pm


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2018-09-05T08:56:49-06:00 2018-09-05T08:56:49-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42680#p42680 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]>
In some ways, Putin's smarter than Napoleon, because he's learned that face to face confrontations are costly and uncertain, even when the target is overmatched. Perhaps that's an advantage intel service training has over artillery training.

He's already likely the richest guy on the planet, and unless he suddenly overcomes his selfishness about this and begins addressing the social cancers that are devouring Russia instead of actively pretending they'll jut go away, I feel he's no equal to Napoleon, because he clearly doesn't care about what's going on domestically. I guess you need way less infrastructure reform to collect enough resources and soldiers for electronic invasions.

Pieces of Europe should be very worried, but he doesn't want to massacre people, he wants to steal their assets and exert control, so he can continue to steal assets.

I used Spain because of its former importance, to everything. I think it's a fair comparison given Russia's actual structural integrity.
Oil is very important, right now, it's true. Going into the 21st century, I think it's done for. Even if he bleeds the new arctic reserves. Maybe he can hold on for his lifetime, but China's move to renewable signals a shift that's over a quarter century late (coulda been us), and they will set the agenda for energy. If huge interests hadn't made a huge effort to stop that shift worldwide, we'd be there already, and the only thing oil would really be good for is plastic (oops, that's eventually going to turn too.)

So, to recap:
Putin is rich and smart and scary, but he won't come here with tanks.
Can't say the same for folks who live in Poland.
It's our fault, sorry Poland.
Our fear of him is a scam to make us not watch theft and lying here at home.

Statistics: Posted by bralbovsky — Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:56 am


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2018-09-04T18:50:19-06:00 2018-09-04T18:50:19-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42671#p42671 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]>
I also don't understand how you think that we had a police to make Russia as "unimportant" as Spain. Last I checked, Spanish power was curbed by... Heh. Anyway, but spain doesn't have oil. And OIL is important enough to change aan empty desert that was best known for camels and horses into glittering oasis. It's enough that the grandson's of a man who once measured his wealth in Camels, Goats and Horses and his military power in men on horses with swords and maybe guns, now command 75 ton tanks, and the finest air supremacy birds the world has known. How exactly do you see the value of oil dissipating in Russia's case?

It's weird. I can think of another dictator, much more recent, who's behavior fit's Putin very well, and the reaction then was much the same: "it's not problem. It's just Austria. Uh, it's just the Sudentland. Uh, it's just the rest of Czechoslovakia... Oh, no, it's Poland. Oh bother."

Russia and Putin are not going away. Ignoring that isn't going to stop Vlad from doing Vlad shit. He lives for this.

Statistics: Posted by Bonefish — Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:50 pm


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2018-08-31T11:10:23-06:00 2018-08-31T11:10:23-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42554#p42554 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by Stan — Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:10 pm


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2018-08-31T10:46:16-06:00 2018-08-31T10:46:16-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42552#p42552 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by bralbovsky — Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:46 am


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2018-08-30T09:01:16-06:00 2018-08-30T09:01:16-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42497#p42497 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by Stan — Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:01 am


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2018-08-30T08:19:10-06:00 2018-08-30T08:19:10-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42495#p42495 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by Bonefish — Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:19 am


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2018-08-30T06:00:29-06:00 2018-08-30T06:00:29-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42489#p42489 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by Phoebe — Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 am


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2018-08-30T05:44:39-06:00 2018-08-30T05:44:39-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42487#p42487 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by Mike — Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:44 am


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2018-08-30T05:16:36-06:00 2018-08-30T05:16:36-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42484#p42484 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by Stan — Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:16 am


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2018-08-29T21:11:06-06:00 2018-08-29T21:11:06-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42478#p42478 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by El Jefe — Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:11 pm


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2018-08-29T21:09:42-06:00 2018-08-29T21:09:42-06:00 https://nerdprideradio.com/nerds/viewtopic.php?t=2388&p=42477#p42477 <![CDATA[Re: Russia. What if.]]> Statistics: Posted by Mike — Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:09 pm


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