Protests

[Phoebe]

I'm not sure what to make of this. I don't know why you want to continue comparing Gaza to the Warsaw ghetto. I don't know why you're saying the occupation began when Israel actually withdrew from Gaza, or why you're implying they reduced the amount of food entering in order to deliberately starve people according to some macabre plan. I agree we shouldn't just listen to what US media says about this but it honestly sounds to me like you have taken what a bunch of pro Hamas propaganda says as the truth. The whole discussion mirrors the narrative used to morally excuse the actions of Hamas and paint them as some sort of freedom fighters protecting innocents. I don't think it's helpful to react by arguing against this. I'm concerned about the idea that people like me have a particular view - who are the people like me in this context, exactly? It might be interesting to just flip the coin over and start from the other side: Is there anything Israel is doing or could be doing that you would consider justified?

[Mike]

Let me bring my point down to it's essence. Let's leave aside property destruction, physical injury, forcing people from their homes, basic human rights violations, and other things that Israel might be accused of... ignore all of that. The question I desperately want answered by the Biden administration is: what circumstances have occurred that you feel morally justify killing 14,000 people, including over 6,000 children, as the best possible response?

[Phoebe]

I think they don't like the civilian impact at all and are trying to curtail it. But they're also not just going to come out for a ceasefire, so... A lot of people will remain unhappy. But the same people (and I don't mean you personally) did not have any such unhappiness when we were part of a coalition bombing Yemen. Our unholy alliance with Saudi Arabia has caused even more death and destruction and injustice, to the extent any of it is worth measuring comparatively (not really). So this is why I don't think it has anything to do with how we feel about the value of lives of other ethnicities, which is so often cited as a motivation. We don't see our own institutions being torn apart by disagreement over US support for Saudi Arabia the way we do for Israel. And personally I think this is because anti-Semitism is *such a thing*. My diagnosis could be totally wrong but people reason very differently about things when it comes to Israel and Jewish people. They are exclusively blamed for everything going on. For people who have family and connections in Gaza and the West Bank I totally understand - It's personal so of course they're going to react the way they do. And for people like you who do consistently worry about humanitarian and human rights issues around the world, I think it's sincere. But I'm talking about what I see as the majority of commentators who have never cared so much about a human rights violation as they care about anything Israel does. Let it happened in Yemen or Africa or somewhere else and you won't hear a peep.

[Mike]

I think they don't like the civilian impact at all and are trying to curtail it. But they're also not just going to come out for a ceasefire, so...

The latest news is that Biden and his administration are sternly warning the Israeli government that due to changing worldwide sentiment about the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Israel won't have much longer to pursue their goal of eliminating Hamas. It's words without action, and they might as well be sending thoughts and prayers.

The U.S. is giving Israel aid money specifically to bomb Gaza with. We supply the weapons to the IDF. Part of Israel's entire swagger is that everyone knows the U.S. has it's back unconditionally. If we wanted Israel to change its behavior, we could make that happen. If we wanted an immediate end to overt hostilities while everyone worked on non-violent solutions, we could give the Israeli government massive incentive to make that happen. We choose to do nothing. In fact, worse than nothing, because we are still actively supporting Israel's actions.

Thus we lament that deaths are sad, but we continue to support them, because there is some goal being achieved that is more important to us than 15,000 innocent lives. More important to us than 20... 30... 50,000 innocent Palestinians. And we feel that the best (or maybe only) way to achieve that goal is with massive amounts of dead Palestinians.

Our current actions mean the IDF can continue bombing while forcing the Gazans into ever smaller and more dire living conditions. Bodies are rotting in the rubble. There is no access to adequate clean water. They have virtually no medical supplies. Not enough electricity or fuel to maintain lifesaving equipment, vehicles or heat. Inadequate food supplies. Viral and bacterial infections are spreading among the survivors, and they have no way to stave it off--because the actions of the Israeli government directly created the perfect conditions for such pestilence. So even with a full ceasefire right now, the Israeli government would be able to keep finding reasons to only allow in the barest trickle of inadequate humanitarian aid, and with a few weeks of stalling just wait for another hundred thousand people to die. Or more likely, far more.

If we don't get an immediate ceasefire and the immediate application of overwhelming amounts of aid to the region, the death toll will be far more staggering than it already is. And yet we wait.

[Mike]

Almost 23,000 verified dead. Likely up to 30,000 actual dead. Over 60,000 wounded. My math says that out of the approx 2 million people in Palestine before this started, Israeli forces have killed 1% of them and injured another 3%. And that's leaving out all the other indignities being suffered.

The Israeli death toll started at 1500 civilians on October 7th. It was revised down the next day to 1400. Then a couple weeks later to 1200. That number has not changed significantly in 3 months. It is now officially 750 Israeli civilians and foreign nationals plus 500 Israeli soldiers.

The bombings haven't stopped. I watch them every day. I see people who have been told to evacuate to X. Then they get bombed on the way to X. Then they have bombs falling ON X. That's routine. I've seen bodies laying in the street that were killed by sniper fire, and then the sniper tries to shoot anyone who attempts to retrieve the body... men, women, or children. I've seen more than one video of IDF soldiers in full uniform pushing Palestinian teenagers ahead of them to open doors for them. Saw an interview with IDF soldiers who took over a civilian residence to use as a firing position against Hamas, and refusing to let the family leave. When asked if they were using the family as human shields, the soldier was offended. They were only doing this because they know Hamas won't shoot at them as long as they have civilians. Yeah... they know Hamas won't target innocent lives, but the IDF will, to the tune of 20-30K. I've seen video after video after video of people treating the wounded in horrifying conditions with inadequate supplies. Videos of foreign humanitarian workers who describe the worst humanitarian crisis they have been involved with and the ways in which present day Gaza is as bad or worse.

At what point do you finally decide that our government is wrong for supporting this? At what point do you no longer see this as justified? How many innocent lives does it take for you?

For me the answer was that I opposed supporting this conflict right away, and I have pushed for the U.S. using its considerable leverage to force the issue and bring all parties to the negotiating table. And at the same time, I am ashamed of how long it has taken me to arrive at this worldview. According to one recent poll, only 32% of Americans believe the U.S. should continue helping Israel to prosecute this war. Only one third still in full support? That's less than I expected, but a good sign, even if Joe Biden isn't listening yet.

[Phoebe]

Nothing about this is good but there was one small ray of hope: at least a significant chunk of the Israeli public now appears to see the return of the hostages as incompatible with Netanyahu's military goals. If they see the campaign as an obstacle to getting the hostages back maybe we will see some movement at last? God I hope so.

[Mike]

Here we go. Israel has continued pushing all of the Palestinians south. There are now roughly 1.4 million Palestinians in Rafah, the only designated "safe zone" left. Although, it should be noted that at every step of the way, the IDF has regularly bombed the official safe routes they designated as well as attacking and bombing civilians in the designated safe zones.

But now everyone's in Rafah, and Israel has just announced that Rafah is no longer safe, and all civilians are ordered to evacuate Rafah in advance of heavy bombing and a ground invasion by IDF. But evacuate to where? They have no designated safe zones anymore. The IDF has been hard at work making the rest of Gaza uninhabitable. The Rafah Gate into Egypt is, at this time, closed. Netanyahu says that the IDF has been tasked with creating a dual plan for both the ground invasion AND the safe evacuation of 1.4 million people, but as of this writing, with the ground assault imminent, they have not shared this evacuation plan with anyone, much less the 1.4 million people who will be expected to follow said plan in order to protect their own lives.

Biden "warned" Netanyahu that it was inadvisable for him to follow through without a more credible evacuation plan, but this warning is toothless. They still have the U.S.'s money and support.

So what now? If you haven't read South Africa's charges against Israel in the International Court of Justice... if you haven't read the Court's emergency ruling on the action... you should seek out and read both of those. South Africa charges that Israel is committing and promoting genocide in Gaza. They cited many of the actions I've mentioned, plus so many more. They list many of the quotes I listed from Israeli leadership, plus so many more. And the ICJ has ruled that the case is not only plausible enough to warrant a full trial, but also that the charges are both plausible and serious enough that they warrant an emergency ruling to order Israel to not do anything that commits or promotes genocide, which is followed up with specifically prohibited actions to facilitate the non-genocide process. Israel and the U.S. are both full-on ignoring the ICJ, but that's to be expected.
.....

Wow. I typed all of the above this morning after I walked my dog. Now, as I go to finish it, I see the news coming out from just a few hours ago saying Israeli forces started that heavy bombing last night, leaving over 100 dead in the former Rafah "safe zone" with no sign of the promised evacuation plan. Why did they murder 100+ people? As a distraction, so they could rescue 2 hostages. At least that's what they say. With my whole chest, I wish our news media has the balls to show the carnage. That was a big part in bringing Vietnam to an end: letting the American people see up close and personal what was happening in their name. You think it's an accident that the powers that be have carefully cultivated our modern shyness about showing the truth of war, calling it "indecent" and "exploitation of tragedy"? No, much better to embed reporters with the troops where the narrative can be controlled, and journalists are kept in line with threats of losing their "inside connections" and the idea that "the military can't guarantee their your safety if you go out on your own." Grotesque. Is it suspicious that the IDF have killed more journalists in 4 months in Gaza than died in all of Vietnam? Fuck this.
.....

Hours later still. The Israeli state is acting to intentionally ramp up an already critical humanitarian crisis and just as intentionally create terror and panic among the occupied people. It is torture. It is inhumane. The South Africans have the right of it.

[Phoebe]

I read this the other day when I didn't have time to type a reply but I've been thinking about it. I don't disagree with you that it's a travesty of human rights violation that has to stop immediately. But I would say my skepticism about anything we hear is very high, and I find it useful to apply the basic tests like "what else would have to be true if this were true". Like we know that the population is not all moved into one place, because we have evidence of them being in all sorts of other places. The problem is there's no place to live and no safe place to go, and nobody's doing a goddamn thing about it, including the US. One of the most horrifying incidents took place the other day when over 100 people died as relief was being distributed. The video bits we have make clear that whole situation with disorganized aid and desperate, starving people was a crime against humanity. But honestly both sides just went on lying about it as usual. At this point I have no idea what could even constitute a solution, though the airdrops of food and supplies seem as good as anything else... Normally not a good method in an already chaotic situation, but there are no other choices. Neither the IDF nor Hamas can be trusted to deliver aid or make any decisions toward the benefit of the humans being killed and maimed and starved. So the rest of the world has to step in and the US has to step up - maybe I'm naive to think Biden is trying to do that, but I feel like he is and it's just that he's at 5% when we want 105 and that's not happening.

[Phoebe]

I do not have it in me right now to watch the videos but am told that the aid drops (US plus other countries) are predictably causing chaos even as they are desperately needed, because people are struggling to get at these things... fill in blanks as expected. It makes me ill that this is the best humanity can do for people, to drop a delivery of food and medicine and let people fight it out in the street. Sick. Let's assume they cannot come up with a ceasefire deal and that there is still some reason to keep pressing for that deal... there is no reason a coalition of nations cannot insist on protecting aid convoys, use UN troops or whatever they have to do to deliver food. Freeze aid to everyone else until aid gets through here, period.

[Phoebe]

This is sickening beyond belief. They should never be at the point of needing to airdrop aid. It doesn't matter who tried to drop this parachute; everybody responsible for not letting aid flow into the area is responsible for these deaths. I can understand not wanting to read the story in full detail so in a nutshell, people were killed and injured when a parachute of the air dropped aid malfunctioned. It's the type of incident that makes you wonder if humans ever can be trusted to have a functioning civilization.

[Mike]

The flow of aid into Gaza is entirely the decision of the Israeli government. As has been the flow of food, electricity, fuel, people, and all goods and services for the past 16 years.

The U.S. government enables the Israeli government by providing around $5 billion in foreign aid to Israel per year. $5 billion is roughly 4% of the Israeli government's annual budget. And recently, the U.S. response to the bombings in Gaza has been to authorize $180 million in aid to Palestinians, while rewarding the Israelis with an extra $14 BILLION.

One of the most extreme humanitarian crises is going on, and we give over 75 times as much aid to the side that is creating and maintaining the crisis.

The Biden administration could be doing far more to bring relief than these sternly worded warnings to Netanyahu about how ill-advised all of this is.

[Mike]

And by the way, the air drops are just for show. The Biden administration wants to be seen as doing something about the crisis.

But do you remember the part where Israel calculated the minimum amount of food needed to keep the Gazan population out of starvation? The number was 106 truckloads of food a day.

Now let's ignore that food mostly stopped coming in a while back. Just in the last week, the two U.S. air drops add up to almost 75,000 meals. Let's be generous and add in the meals the Jordanian air force dropped the week before. Grand total, that comes up to about 1 truckload of food over the course of a week. A week that should have seen over 700 trucks.

Don't get me wrong, those meals can be the difference between life or death for the lucky few that got them. Maybe their family can last an extra few days waiting for a ceasefire. But it's not enough.

[Phoebe]

Or just death for the people they were literally dropped on top of. Good God.

[Mike]

But again, this is just so Biden can look like he's doing something while still giving Netanyahu free rein (and all those sweet U.S. dollars).

Dammit! I was sure we'd have a ceasefire by Monday, but darn if those rascals can't ever agree on anything (both sides). Without an agreement, Israel won't let us in, because obviously it's their right to starve people if there's no agreement. But at least we're airdropping enough food for 3% of them to have ONE meal this week. It's everything we can possibly do, given these difficult circumstances.

In January, the UN declared that over half a million Gazans were in immediate danger of starvation. The bombing has not flagged since that time, so it has only gotten worse. The World Food Programme is "allowed" to bring some food aid into Rafah, but nowhere near enough to meet the demand. The 300,000 to 500,000 people in the remainder of Gaza however have been blocked from receiving any food or aid for the last 18 days. A convoy tried again two days ago and were stopped by the IDF.

How many Gazans will be dead when this is over? With starvation, malnutrition, disease, infection, not to mention bombs and bullets, will it be a quarter million? More? Less? There is no doubt that this is all intentional on the part of the Israeli government, because from the start, so many of them openly stated that this is what they wanted. All they have to do is keep bombing and stalling.

[Mike]

Hmm. Oscar night AND the first day of Ramadan. What are the chances Israel does something big right now? I mean, I hope they don't, but it would follow a pattern.

[Mike]

"US not anticipating Israeli forces to enter Rafah at the start of Ramadan"

CNN's headline guesses that my prediction was off.

[Kyle]

I can't believe I'm "that guy." 30,000 dead in Gaza? I knew it was horrible what was going on. I generally agree with what Mike's saying. When I've discussed it with people, I've expressed how I don't understand how a ceasefire isn't something people should want-- or the converse being, I don't know how you can defend not calling for a ceasefire. But I admittedly have not been paying as close attention due to personal events happening rapid fire in my own life.

But then I saw that number- 30,000 dead. That's unfathomable. And it's apparently not enough for Netanyahu? I don't know what to think.

[Phoebe]

Apparently N. doesn't care how many people die, specifically, because he thinks the military objectives are more important and, like all the others who agree with his plan, he is convinced only Hamas is morally responsible for whatever bad things are happening. But everyone else easily sees this is upside-down land wrong and totally immoral. No matter what these remaining military objectives may be (and we know it goes way beyond finding the other hostages), they're not more important than preventing the starvation of thousands of people, or all the other senseless and easily avoidable deaths (like being killed when food aid falls upon you from the sky... I cannot get over that one). Nobody believes that Hamas or the UN or Egypt is blocking all the food and medicine and other humanitarian aid, or stealing it, or simply failing to distribute it (these are the three regular excuses one hears). Well, nobody besides his supporters, but if we can believe what is reported about public opinion, most Israelis don't believe this and are well aware that their government's policies are leading to mass starvation and death. So, why is everyone being held to what this small group of clearly wrong people insist is right? It's mind-boggling.