Republicans

[Phoebe]

Update: Stan Lane the actual wrestler took yet another DNA test which ruled out the possibility of his being Lauren Boebert's father. I think it's really sad he had to do this in order to shut them up. Why is it so important for Boebert and her mother to hide who her real father is? If her mother truly believes Stan Lane is the father, but keeps getting proven wrong by the DNA, maybe she should look into this Sam Ticer dude who was going around Florida at the same time pretending to be that guy! Or, much more likely, she or they know darn well Stan Lane was never the father, in which case why double and then triple down on the lie? What would a person be trying to hide by pinning it on this poor guy, who kept being harassed about it? Occam might have some ideas I guess...

I get why you're saying this but it's not intended as a criticism. The story is a lot weirder. It turns out there's a guy named Sam Ticer who died in 2011 after decades of claiming to be the wrestler, Stan Lane (the one who was alleged to be Boebert's father but then ruled out by the DNA test).
This fact only came to light when they published Ticer's history as Stan Lane in his obituary, and somehow it came to the attention of people who knew the real guy who was still among the living. If I were a conspiracy theorist I would probably observe the Ticers actually do look like Boebert, but I think that's a pure coincidence. It's just funny. The whole thing is wild: who falsely pretends to be a minor league pro wrestler? Apparently a very long list of people! It's a whole thing, where multiple people have perpetuated the hoax that they had a life as a barely-famous pro wrestler. Life is strange.

[poorpete]

Disappointing but unsurprising responses from many in the GOP this morning. But it's all strategy, nothing more. They already had their planned responses ready for weeks/months/years

Only question they need to ask: is this the moment I break things off? And for those who have chosen "no" seven years running, not at all surprising this wasn't the straw that broke their backs.

What were the broken back moments, where there was a large pushback from his own side? Maybe just 2 moments: 2016 Access Hollywood tape. 2021 Insurrection. Not surprising a second indictment wasn't a straw.

[Mike]

This indictment seems straightforward enough and consists largely of things Trump has confessed to proudly in front of cameras. It should be a no-brainer. But I can't get excited, because the man has failed forward so many times that I fully expect him to Berlusconi his way out of it.

[Kyle]

This indictment seems straightforward enough and consists largely of things Trump has confessed to proudly in front of cameras. It should be a no-brainer. But I can't get excited, because the man has failed forward so many times that I fully expect him to Berlusconi his way out of it.

What's so disheartening for me is that Trump will make millions in donations as a result of this. I'm sure he was able to raise 10x what the defamation verdict was after that came down- this will be like that.

[poorpete]

After the GOP knee-capped Affirmative Action, glad to see some are trying to go after donor and legacy admissions. If we are entering this Jim Crow 2 era, family members of donors getting in is like a Poll Tax and legacies getting in is The Grandfather Clause. But since all this isn't really about fairness, and these guys previously said money is speech, there's no doubt these things will live on.

[Mike]

Correct, this court is going to keep spitting out baseless, biased, self-contradictory opinions that are aimed at keeping conservatives in power and protecting the rights of (and ONLY the rights of) white conservative Christian men. I mean, honestly, they should just keep it simple and go back to only granting the vote to white landowning men 21 and older.

I know Biden is opposed to drastic court reform, but without it, does anyone have another reasonable way out of this? Impeachment of the conservative justices for their gross and obvious corruption is nigh impossible, so what can be done?

[Phoebe]

Republicans fighting about the nominee. Trump surely would be chosen even if - nay, especially if! - he ended up in jail. Those who thought DeSantis could save the day are grappling with the fact that he's deeply unlikeable. Most Republicans seem comfortable with Trump running again, but others see the giant L hanging in the distance and aren't sure how to avoid it. Who could they get and how will they get that person past the primary? It's a problem because it would be really awesome if they nominated a sane and functional person who doesn't thrive on cruelty against other humans. That would be a win-win for the whole country because we could live with the outcomes. It's really not good for anyone when things are in this dysfunctional state.

[Kyle]

If Republicans nominate Tim Scott, he would soundly beat Biden. I think Republicans are slowly coming around to that.

[Tahlvin]

Did Mitch McConnell just have a stroke during a live press conference? I definitely don't agree with much of the man's politics, but I hope he's okay.

[Mike]

Did Mitch McConnell just have a stroke during a live press conference? I definitely don't agree with much of the man's politics, but I hope he's okay.

He almost certainly did. And he says he's fine.

[Phoebe]

Did Mitch McConnell just have a stroke during a live press conference? I definitely don't agree with much of the man's politics, but I hope he's okay.

He almost certainly did. And he says he's fine.

I had to google this and the way the people surrounding him reacted was SO strange to observe. The colleagues didn't seem surprised - like you get the impression this wasn't the first time most of them have observed a similar thing, but maybe this pause was longer than usual? The people outside that little group around the podium reacted much more "normally" in that their faces registered confusion and slight alarm, as humans would.

[Phoebe]

If Republicans nominate Tim Scott, he would soundly beat Biden. I think Republicans are slowly coming around to that.

This is a really interesting situation. Tim Scott doesn't think LGBT people and women deserve their basic human rights, but since he shares that common denominator with almost everybody on his team, compared to the rest of them he's also the adult in the room and a functional human being.

[Mike]

Poll averages from 538 as of today:
Trump 52.4%
DeSantis 15.5%
Ramaswamy 6.8%
Pence 4.6%
Haley 3.1%
Scott 2.9%
Christie 2.4%

[Phoebe]

Ok, do I have dementia? Did I hallucinate? I swear to you I looked up Iowa, SC, NH and... possible this was my self-soothing dream. I was in bed at the time! Disturbed.

Also wtf is Ramaswamy? Do I need to Google this? I am not ok.

[Mike]

From Wikipedia:

Vivek Ramaswamy was born in Cincinnati to Indian immigrant parents. He graduated from Harvard College with a bachelor's in biology and later earned a J.D. from Yale Law School. In 2014, Ramaswamy founded the biotech company, Roivant Sciences after working as an investment partner at a hedge fund. After stepping down as Roivant's chief executive in 2021, Ramaswamy co-founded and became executive chairman of Strive Asset Management, an investment firm that positions itself in opposition to environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG). In February 2023, Ramaswamy declared his candidacy for the Republican Party's nomination for president in the 2024 election.

Ramaswamy rose to prominence in conservative circles as an "anti-woke" activist. He started his campaign claiming that the United States is in the middle of a "national identity crisis", which he blamed on "new secular religions" such as "woke-ism", "climate-ism", "covid-ism", and "gender ideology". He is also a critic of ESG initiatives. In April 2023, Forbes estimated his net worth at $630 million; his wealth comes from biotech and financial businesses.

He's 37.

[Phoebe]

Edited later. Can't find the brackets.

[Phoebe]

Edited

[Phoebe]

Reuters headline this AM, W. T. F.:

"Indictment could propel Trump closer to 2024 Republican nomination"

[Mike]

If I understand correctly, the indictments make him more likely to win nomination and less likely to win the presidency.

I don't know if the same holds for convictions.

I assume he's running with the hope of implementing a successful coup this time and then pardoning himself and implementing the 2025 initiative to make him a dictator.

[Phoebe]

The twisted logic holds together in the same way that by expressing his feelings of being aggrieved by the libs, Trump somehow champions and assuages his followers' feelings of being aggrieved by the libs. So when he fights back, It's like they're all fighting back against the collective mass of woke. I would have thought the line gets drawn when you're indicted for multiple different things, but the joke is on me.

[Phoebe]

I have a CPAP machine by the way and hopefully am no longer suffering from any cognitive impairment beyond "being me". Names are withheld below to protect the innocent, but I was around some "Biological straight men" recently when my phone provided some urgent news about "Riley Gaines". None of these people know who Riley Gaines is; they're all old men with decades of marriage experience to a Biological Woman. I showed them the photo of "Riley Gaines" standing next to a "Trans Woman" and I asked one simple question: "which one of these is a Biological Man? Since ONLY one of them is, apparently?" And WITHOUT EXCEPTION all the biological straight men confirmed to me that Riley Gaines is a biological man.

[Mando]

congrats on the CPAP, I have a BiPAP and it is a real life-saver. A very high incidence of heart issues stem from obstructed breathing. I did not have dreams for decades until I got my BiPAP. Now I have more than I want...and night terrors too, but its a small price to pay.

Politically I want anything but a rematch of 2020.
I would be happy with a lot of the candidates that are in the running except for 1 or 2.
However, there are so many people that will have nothing but Trump that they would rather burn it all down than see anyone else as the nominee. I do not see how being a sexual assault convict doesn't make you ineligible for the office. I mean, how is that a qualification? I have daughters and I can tell you how that makes me feel about him.

And can we talk about an age limit...as in you should not be able to serve past 80 and ineligible to be elected at 77...or something.

I will consider almost anyone an improvement over these 2 jokers

For the first time in my life I am considering not voting...

[Mike]

I don't have daughters so the topic is irrelevant to me.

[Mike]

I'm not a fan of either of the two frontrunners, but one of them instigated and openly supported a violent insurrection in a effort to overturn a legitimate election, even though he was fully aware that there was no election fraud, all of his advisors knew there was no election fraud, and 60 court cases (many of them presided over by his hand-picked judges) found zero evidence of any fraud that could have changed the results for even a single precinct in this nation... and the other one didn't.

And if you watched the GOP debates, you saw that every single one of them supports Trump now and has vowed to support him even if he is convicted of these many many felonies. They continue to allow this lie to fester and to sow further unwarranted distrust in our American institutions either because they truly believe the lies, or because they recognize that Trump is wrong, but they won't stand up for their principles because doing so wouldn't be politically expedient. That is the choice that almost all Republican candidates face, and most of them have chosen loyalty to a pedagogue.

There's so much more, but even just this should be sufficient for anyone.

[Phoebe]

I wish that man was a pedagogue, lollllll it was wishful thinking manifesting.

[Mike]

I wish that man was a pedagogue, lollllll it was wishful thinking manifesting.

HA! Misused that one, didn't I? I have now educated myself, and hopefully I remember next time by connecting pedagogy to pedantry.

[Phoebe]

I thought at the time the way you said it would be a positive outcome! Follow more pedagogues, less demagogue.

[Phoebe]

The Colorado Trump thing might be technically a basic accountability for actions but it's also terrible on a practical level. The last thing we need is the Supreme Court deciding crucial factors in the election. MAGA people were already a bazillion percent convinced of their victimhood and that Trump's victimization proves their own persecution - this outside the lines removal from the ballot before any voting will give every needed justification for both their worldview and what they consider a justified response. Terrible all around.

Meanwhile... Poisoning the Blood. It fell out of the news cycle as soon as it came in, washed clean by this thing about the ballot. Um, full Nazi blood talk. Nobody's listening.

[Phoebe]

Pretend for a moment that Trump didn't want to be president again and was trying to lose the primary by saying the most outrageous possible things that would surely make people turn to the next alternative. How would that be different? Yet here we are. Is there any freaking hope for Nikki Haley? I say a prayer for her success every day, and I mean, I really don't like her but here we are. It would be so incredibly good if she won somehow.

[Phoebe]

Iowa caucus points of interest:
It's a very small slice of the Iowa electorate! Crazy that it's given so much importance by pundits despite this fact. And despite the bad weather, roughly half of those voters were retirement age, reflecting the overall R/D divide that continues to be old versus young, rural versus urban, white versus anything else, and evangelical versus other.

Interestingly, the huge education gap we already see between R&D now plays itself out between Haley and Trump. Less educated people love Trump, and this appeared to be the most stark of the differences between his supporters and Haley's. It's interesting because Trump and DeSantis have the fancy educations from fancy institutions, and Haley is a graduate of Clemson. We might suspect (maybe even due to her parents' own accomplishments) that she has a greater intellectual capacity than we see displayed on the campaign trail, while the other two must be clever people who are purposely being cunning and acting dumb in order to attract the stupids they take as their voting base. Trump has made no secret of his disdain for his own voters and their stupidity, for which they forgive him completely or don't even notice. But DeSantis always struck me as the more sneaky and creepy of the group for this reason. When you look at what he did in his life up to this point, despite being able to do pretty much anything he wanted with his access to education, it's a very poor recommendation for political leadership. Like I wouldn't trust him on a town council, much less as President. An unfortunate result of the caucus was that he will continue to be taken seriously as a candidate because he was able to eke out that small slice of a small slice of Iowa voters. Onward he goes. I hope New Hampshire is more decisive for Haley and that other states follow. If it were anybody but Trump you would think momentum and strong showings on her part would be very powerful. But his people will never give up their cult leader, so... The good news is honestly that in 20 years we will have a different set of problems because the core of his cult literally just won't be with us anymore. It's kind of tragic - Is this the legacy of the Boomer generation? To go out on clinging faithfully to Trump? How sad and how dangerous for all of us.

[Phoebe]

How happy can I be that it's not going to be DeSantis when it looks like Haley has such an uphill climb, and then we would have to get Haley??
But dude... anything! anything anything anything they have to do to get past this current situation with Trump.

[Phoebe]

Occasionally when feeling down, particularly about the bleak future of my working life, I remind myself that I don't live in Oklahoma. Today is one of those days, because I gather the head of the education department had to put someone on a committee that oversees things like library content in the Oklahoma K12 schools. Imagine his thought process:
What we really need for the kids of Oklahoma is to bring in someone from New York or LA (or better yet, both!) who has no qualifications, training, or experience related to education, but who spends their daily life trolling the internet for videos posted by kids - particularly trans or LGB kids - with the goal of making them go as public and viral as possible. Let's get a person in there who likes nothing better than to watch and publicize videos of someone else's minor child who has gotten a top surgery. We need someone who isn't just going to select positive books for our children to read - no, We need someone who's put a lot of research into hunting for potentially dirty pictures in books for middle schoolers. The kind of person whose judgment tells them that a naked anatomy picture is p***. And better yet if that person also likes to doxx and misrepresent teachers and doctors and anyone else who has actual expertise in working with young people. We want to make sure that the real experts are shamed and subjected to regular death threats, while only the creeps and perverts who spend all day watching kids TikTok videos, despite never having a child of their own much less a child attending a school, will make the decisions for Oklahoma children.

If the aliens ever find out about this, I'm concerned they might not think we are worth preserving as a civilization. Lo and behold I found yet another reason to move further away from Oklahoma - to be safer if the space aliens ever come to put a stop to this nonsense.

And I'm not joking: ask yourself if you know anyone who makes it their main business in life to obsess about gay kids who is not an absolute menacing pervert you wouldn't let your kids within 50 yards of! I have never known a one of those weirdos who was not in fact a real weirdo. The more they talk about and post pictures of and pore over trans kids, the more likely to be a true creep imo. Normal people do not dwell in their thoughts on the personal lives or sexuality of other people's kids, period! That's messed up x1000000!!! Nor do they spend their time thoughtfully dwelling on other people's LGBT kids. Something is deeply wrong and I cannot understand why normal people in Oklahoma would let that near their schools or kids.

[Phoebe]

Update: not only did they put this freak in charge of some kind of education decisions in Oklahoma, but a journalist interviewed her and she turns out to be one of those inexplicable Jewish people who loves great replacement theory and the neo nazis who promote it. I don't know if she grasps that they blame Jewish people for this or if she just thinks it's racism that won't include her somehow? Anyway, true to form she went on to show a p*** video to the interviewer during the interview. This is the type of f***** up creep they are letting make decisions in Oklahoma because they are worried that a 14-year-old is non-binary and they don't know how to handle it - indeed, the kids in OK go ahead and kill this kid. Kill! It's unbelievable. Meanwhile Trump doing great in the polls, which I hope are BS, because I am not prepared to move to another country but it is not a joke. They will make camps for the immigrants and the trans people, I literally do not doubt it because they already have the camps for the immigrants and they were already doing that before. They were pulling them off buses and stashing immigrant kids in unmarked defunct hotels... It is some truly sinister s*** going on in this country right now.