Kamala Harris

[Mike]

So... good move by the Dems? Bad move?

I think Harris has a better chance against Trump in the election. She's very qualified. She's too conservative for my taste, but I will happily vote for her if she is the official candidate on that side.

The biggest downside to this (and it will happen no matter who the Democrat candidate ends up being) is that Republicans have said they will challenge the legality of any non-Biden candidate in every state they can. That means there's a chance that the next president will be chosen by the Supreme Court, who has shown every willingness to shit on the Constitution if they can plausibly give Trump an advantage.

I haven't seen anything yet today. Do we think the party will fall in line for Harris, or do we expect a brokered convention?

[Kyle]

As my wife said, "Well. At least I can vote for her with a clean conscience." Which is true. Would I have voted Biden over Trump. Sure. But I would have felt like I was voting for someone that I didn't think was capable of physically serving his term. With Harris I can vote for her and not feel so much like it's the lesser of two evils.

That said, I still think Trump wins the election outright. I don't think it's going to matter what legal shenanigans the GOP does.

[DMDarcs]

This could be a brilliant move. I know that there have been several polls that have suggested that Harris has a much higher chance of beating Trump than Biden. (I think one poll said that a Harris/H. Clinton ticket would blow them out of the water.) And there has been speculation that in his upcoming rallies, Trump will have a harder time as instead of focusing on how bad Biden is, he will now actually have to discuss policy issues. I don't know how much I buy into that. Trump might be a little rattled - he has apparently tried to push the next debate farther back and move the venue from ABC to Fox - though delaying tactics seem to be his game anyway. Maybe there is hope that Harris might win over some of the "law and order" voters. She does seem to get less rattled about criticism than Trump, or at least, doesn't result in a fallback routine of stuttering, and it would be harder to claim cognitive decline on her behalf.

[Mike]

The enthusiasm is huge. The fundraising is unprecedented. Polling is a statistical tie.

Stay tuned.

[Kyle]

JD Vance is an anchor. Maybe the worst we've ever seen. Maybe a bigger joke than Sarah Palin.

What I don't understand is why the republican party is acting so chaotic and inept right now. They still have the leverage. But they're flailing with no message and no direction. They're still wanting to campaign against Biden. Meanwhile the Harris campaign seems to be reacting very sharply and pro-actively. Why are the republicans playing defense when they're still ostensibly in the lead? Inept. This is what happens when you put cronies instead of smart people in the positions of power. Which really scares me if Trump pulls this off and wins the election.

[Phoebe]

She was my candidate in the way back when so personally I could not be more thrilled, but I do have a fear there's a certain number of people (both men and women) who will not vote for a woman. I don't know why and I don't know what's wrong with those people but I'm worried that they're out there, because we've heard from them and we know they exist In a significant enough number. I believe in my heart she's going to prevail but I won't believe it till it actually happens and I think it's going to be a long ugly journey from here to there. I do think the energy behind her candidacy will buoy a lot of candidates underneath her on the ticket.

Tim Walz is also a huge favorite of mine ever since I saw him speak a while ago now, but it looks like she may go with Pennsylvania guy. I don't know. I think getting another guy behind her who is reminiscent of Biden while bringing the new energy and a swing state is key, so whoever can do that, OK. The names I've seen all seem qualified and decent so, good. Hoping for the best.

[Kyle]

I just had a client telling me today that they thought Walz was the best cadidate, but was positive she's picking Shapiro (who I don't think is a bad pick).