Biden
Biden
Should he? Will he? I hesitate to ask because honestly the entire conversation and the media discourse around this enrages me. We have high standards for one group and zero standards whatsoever for the treasonous and cognitively impaired sack of clown show crap on the other side. But here we are, unable to take chances with the voters, unable to predict what the voters are really thinking or going to do, and worried that something worse might happen between now and then and wanting a plan B in place... It's all just terrible.
Re: Biden
He should. I think he will lose against Trump. I'm not confident that he's actually in charge at the white house. I've lost any confidence in his abilities, and I felt like I've been lied to by his administration.
Do I think a replacement could be Trump? I don't know. But I don't think Biden can.
Do I think a replacement could be Trump? I don't know. But I don't think Biden can.
Re: Biden
All of the following is a mish mash of the best takes I've heard on the current situation:
If it's not Biden, then Biden himself has to make the coherent and powerful speech in which he steps down and wholeheartedly endorses a successor. I don't think he's willing to do that, and as long as he says he's running, he's the nominee.
But let's imagine he does it, then that successor pretty much has to be Harris. He's already named her as the most capable person to helm the country if something should happen to him. I don't see him changing course on that without creating another mess. She is the designated successor. Any other choice turns into a messy contested convention.
So let's say Biden steps down and Harris is the nominee. In head to head polls, Harris fares about the same as any other leading non-Biden Democrat pitted against Trump. That is, current polls say Trump loses by a couple points but within the margin of error. Still a toss up, but probably better than Biden.
Once they run in earnest, Harris becomes the law and order candidate based on her background and contrasts herself with Trump the Felon. On Trump's side, every speech he gives degenerates into his racism and misogyny on full display as he rants about his opponent.
All that to say, I think it's gonna be Biden v Trump, the Sequel, and I can spin a bunch of scenarios in favor of either side. Uncertainty sucks.
If it's not Biden, then Biden himself has to make the coherent and powerful speech in which he steps down and wholeheartedly endorses a successor. I don't think he's willing to do that, and as long as he says he's running, he's the nominee.
But let's imagine he does it, then that successor pretty much has to be Harris. He's already named her as the most capable person to helm the country if something should happen to him. I don't see him changing course on that without creating another mess. She is the designated successor. Any other choice turns into a messy contested convention.
So let's say Biden steps down and Harris is the nominee. In head to head polls, Harris fares about the same as any other leading non-Biden Democrat pitted against Trump. That is, current polls say Trump loses by a couple points but within the margin of error. Still a toss up, but probably better than Biden.
Once they run in earnest, Harris becomes the law and order candidate based on her background and contrasts herself with Trump the Felon. On Trump's side, every speech he gives degenerates into his racism and misogyny on full display as he rants about his opponent.
All that to say, I think it's gonna be Biden v Trump, the Sequel, and I can spin a bunch of scenarios in favor of either side. Uncertainty sucks.
Any time the solution is "banjo rifle", I'm in 100%.
Re: Biden
Biden didn't help himself yesterday. And I saw a commentator that pinpointed what his tactic is: "Give me a few more days and you'll see I'm the candidate." And when that doesn't work, then there's another opportunity just a few days away. And then another. The problem is that momentum is building against him. He needs to do the right thing.
Let's be honest. If Nikki Hailey was running against Biden, I might vote Hailey.
Let's be honest. If Nikki Hailey was running against Biden, I might vote Hailey.
Re: Biden
From my perspective the only thing that matters is that he wins. It does not seem possible to get another candidate in place who can better guarantee that result, so it's got to be him and he's got to win. But the fact that so many people I know are having your reaction is throwing doubt on whether he can win! It comes down to things like turnout and predicting the behavior of a lot of irrational and deeply stupid people. And I just don't know how to do that. No matter how b******* I think the complaints against him are, and no matter how much worse I think Trump is by any of the same standards, it doesn't matter what I think as long as voters don't share those feelings. If there was an easy way to get another person in there that would be a sure victor, then we'd have to do it. Who is that person and how would that be done? Nobody can explain this so it has to be Biden and he has to win.
The precariousness of it Is agonizing and at this point it's a deep struggle to figure out how to cope with friends and loved ones who are captured by the madness. It's painful.
The precariousness of it Is agonizing and at this point it's a deep struggle to figure out how to cope with friends and loved ones who are captured by the madness. It's painful.
Re: Biden
To be clear, I'll vote for Biden. But to also be clear- I think he's not competent. I think he's not calling the shots at the White House. I think that he's suffering from age-related degeneration, whether that's Parkinson's or Alzheimer's or something else. I don't think he's fit for office. I don't think those are bitchy complaints. I think they're legitimate concerns about who has control over our nuclear arsenal and our national security.
Knowing all that, I'll still vote for him over Trump. But there are many, many people that are in the middle that are similarly convinced about Biden's abilities, like I am, and they'll vote for Trump.
Knowing all that, I'll still vote for him over Trump. But there are many, many people that are in the middle that are similarly convinced about Biden's abilities, like I am, and they'll vote for Trump.
Re: Biden
That's what I'm thinking: like you, an unknown number of people are bothered by this and unlike you, it will influence their votes. So it really doesn't matter if I think they're right or wrong... Honestly it's similar to the way I think some voters, including some Democrats, feel about women being an executive leader. For whatever reason they are not comfortable putting a woman in that position, and it doesn't matter whether I agree with them if that's the way they're going to vote. This is in fact a major fear I have about Kamala Harris or any woman being the nominee, no matter how much I personally may like them. It's not just about what happened with Hillary, because she was disliked for other reasons before she ran. But there's a certain number of people, including other women, who just won't vote for a woman.
I think because of the experiences I've had with older people, I see a person who looks stiff or stumbles verbally in the way Biden has been doing for decades now, and it doesn't make me question their competence. I listen to his full NATO press conference while I was cooking and none of the little stumbles made me worry. I thought it was a full display of his continuing competence, just as I expected. But people may not be accustomed to this or they may have had the opposite experience... A loved ones verbal lapses turned quickly into actual Alzheimer's and confusion that affected their ability to live independently. A loved one with Parkinson's didn't continue to exercise the best judgment but instead started having cognitive problems or hallucination. For me it's been the opposite because my elderly people remain sharp and I would put their judgment over almost anybody no matter which names they have gotten wrong or which senior moments they've had. So this could be a situation where personal experiences different enough that it's going to impact voting behavior. And if it's several thousand people in swing states? Well then it's too much and we can't have it. But what's the realistic solution?
When you look at polling, the only person who seems like a safe bet is actually Michelle Obama. I don't see how anybody is nominating Michelle Obama over Harris or a solid Democratic governor. I think Tim Walz is awesome and would be hugely popular once people heard him speak, but how would elevating someone like him not divide the party and depress turnout?
I do think if he's going to do it he should do it very soon. And I imagine they all know it so if it doesn't happen after the next few weeks I don't see it happening.
I think because of the experiences I've had with older people, I see a person who looks stiff or stumbles verbally in the way Biden has been doing for decades now, and it doesn't make me question their competence. I listen to his full NATO press conference while I was cooking and none of the little stumbles made me worry. I thought it was a full display of his continuing competence, just as I expected. But people may not be accustomed to this or they may have had the opposite experience... A loved ones verbal lapses turned quickly into actual Alzheimer's and confusion that affected their ability to live independently. A loved one with Parkinson's didn't continue to exercise the best judgment but instead started having cognitive problems or hallucination. For me it's been the opposite because my elderly people remain sharp and I would put their judgment over almost anybody no matter which names they have gotten wrong or which senior moments they've had. So this could be a situation where personal experiences different enough that it's going to impact voting behavior. And if it's several thousand people in swing states? Well then it's too much and we can't have it. But what's the realistic solution?
When you look at polling, the only person who seems like a safe bet is actually Michelle Obama. I don't see how anybody is nominating Michelle Obama over Harris or a solid Democratic governor. I think Tim Walz is awesome and would be hugely popular once people heard him speak, but how would elevating someone like him not divide the party and depress turnout?
I do think if he's going to do it he should do it very soon. And I imagine they all know it so if it doesn't happen after the next few weeks I don't see it happening.
Re: Biden
In a world where the Republican Party did the sane thing and didn’t renominate the candidate that lost the last election, I think Biden wouldn’t have even ran. I wish we weren’t in this position, but here we are. This sucks.
Re: Biden
When he gave his DNC speech I actually got emotional, which was surprising - I'll cry over a bad TV show but politics is usually cynical. Not then. It was kind of like when Obama first got elected and we knew... But in an opposite way. Knowing the weight of his decision to yield power, and that he did it anyway... that's courage and integrity. I don't think it's just that he was clinging to power but that he really worried the party would descend into a chaotic nomination contest and there was no room for error. So he had to be sure he wasn't the best winning candidate and that the party was going to rally around Harris. It's really quite a thing he did and they are right that his legacy of service is thereby cemented.
I'm still really concerned about men and some women who will not vote for a woman president. Harris is flipping things on Trump because she's so much more popular with independents and moderates, who now feel confident planning to vote for her. But men, including some men who would consider themselves moderate or liberal, are still going for Trump and Vance in a way that I find it hard to understand as a woman. The whole Trump message seems to be to double down on Trump by giving us the dimestore Ben Shapiro version of Trump as the running mate. Trump is just as offensive as he's always been, no more and no less than usual, but adding Vance just underscored the creepy and gross factor. It amazes me that his strategy is consistently "high school debater owns the libs, in his own mind", I guess because they think attracting more men to the ticket or getting them out to vote is the only way they can gain. In the universe of normal people, nobody is impressed, but the kind of guy in a pickup who likes to tailgate thinks this is a sign of cleverness. God help us if these people win.
It's interesting that the Republican party has collapsed in the policy zone, so all they've got left now is the extreme position, while Democrats have expanded the tent so much that the future portends real serious divisions among them. The ideological gap is just so wide now between moderates and progressives, and they're doing an incredible job of papering over it at the convention but it will bubble back up. If they win it will be very interesting to see where this goes in two years.
I love Tim Walz and this is pretty much my dream ticket from 2020 come to life in 2024. I really couldn't be happier with the pair of them, but The process seems so imperiled that I don't think I'll be comfortable until sometime in mid-February, assuming it goes well. The attacks on Tim Walz's 24 years of service to his country make my blood boil. I have serious problems with people who are still voting for Trump at this point, no matter how much the Democrat elders at the convention are trying to persuade us to be persuasive... I do my best to be nice but I honestly think if you're swift boating Walz or claiming that his wife lied about IVF, you are lower than the lowest. They have found water on Mars and you should go there quickly.
I'm still really concerned about men and some women who will not vote for a woman president. Harris is flipping things on Trump because she's so much more popular with independents and moderates, who now feel confident planning to vote for her. But men, including some men who would consider themselves moderate or liberal, are still going for Trump and Vance in a way that I find it hard to understand as a woman. The whole Trump message seems to be to double down on Trump by giving us the dimestore Ben Shapiro version of Trump as the running mate. Trump is just as offensive as he's always been, no more and no less than usual, but adding Vance just underscored the creepy and gross factor. It amazes me that his strategy is consistently "high school debater owns the libs, in his own mind", I guess because they think attracting more men to the ticket or getting them out to vote is the only way they can gain. In the universe of normal people, nobody is impressed, but the kind of guy in a pickup who likes to tailgate thinks this is a sign of cleverness. God help us if these people win.
It's interesting that the Republican party has collapsed in the policy zone, so all they've got left now is the extreme position, while Democrats have expanded the tent so much that the future portends real serious divisions among them. The ideological gap is just so wide now between moderates and progressives, and they're doing an incredible job of papering over it at the convention but it will bubble back up. If they win it will be very interesting to see where this goes in two years.
I love Tim Walz and this is pretty much my dream ticket from 2020 come to life in 2024. I really couldn't be happier with the pair of them, but The process seems so imperiled that I don't think I'll be comfortable until sometime in mid-February, assuming it goes well. The attacks on Tim Walz's 24 years of service to his country make my blood boil. I have serious problems with people who are still voting for Trump at this point, no matter how much the Democrat elders at the convention are trying to persuade us to be persuasive... I do my best to be nice but I honestly think if you're swift boating Walz or claiming that his wife lied about IVF, you are lower than the lowest. They have found water on Mars and you should go there quickly.
Re: Biden
The fact check on Walz and IVF is that technically they used IUI (intrauterine insemination), which is a related bit less invasive procedure. The problem is that if you tell people you used IUI, then you have to spend a couple minutes explaining and answering questions, because no one knows what IUI is. When you say IVF, everyone is immediately on the same page and it gives the same gist: "our child was only possible due to the assistance of fertility science/tech".
It's technically not the truth, but not in a way that is relevant to campaign speeches.
It's technically not the truth, but not in a way that is relevant to campaign speeches.
Any time the solution is "banjo rifle", I'm in 100%.
Re: Biden
My imperfect understanding is also that people go through a lot of the same procedures in preparation for either one of these things. And if IUI fails they might need to go to IVF. So I think when someone undergoing IUI says that they or their spouse used fertility procedures like IVF, and we have to make sure to keep them available, they haven't told any sort of lie. To accuse either one of lying about it is despicable, but it's much more despicable for the person who literally voted against protecting IVF and who himself is lying about whether he did that. He wants to pretend that voting against IVF wasn't actually opposition to IVF.
The thing I dislike most about JD Vance is that his daily modus operandi is darvo. It's something I understand very profoundly and not only does he use it constantly, it's pretty much the only thing that ever comes out of his mouth. I'm going to delete my analysis of this because it probably says more about me than him. He's a dark triad personality and that's the main thing.
The thing I dislike most about JD Vance is that his daily modus operandi is darvo. It's something I understand very profoundly and not only does he use it constantly, it's pretty much the only thing that ever comes out of his mouth. I'm going to delete my analysis of this because it probably says more about me than him. He's a dark triad personality and that's the main thing.