Republicans

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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Fishbone has a really good song for this occasion but I'm not going to say the title because I'm demure and polite like that. It makes me smile a great deal to think of it though. Starts with L
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

I'm interested in where this Speaker of the house thing leads to. Gaming out the scenarios,

From most likely to least likely, in my biased and amateur opinion:
- McCarthy gives the hard right everything they want, they fall in line.
- McCarthy gives up, Jim Jordan sweeps in, moderate GOP hold their nose and vote for unity.
- McCarthy stays firm, the hard right grows tired, goes home, literally goes home, allows McCarthy to win without their votes (he needs a plurality of votes, not a majority of voters -- although oh wait this would actually benefit Hakeem Jeffries, that WOULD be wiid)

after-witch, things probably get very unlikely

- a compromise non-Jim Jordan candidate is found
- McCarthy cuts a deal with Democrat moderates, promising a few bipartisan rules and votes in exchange for not voting.
- Instead of McCarthy, a less spineless GOP moderate cuts a deal with Democrat moderates. Larry Hogan comes in and saves the day? This is probably my preferred of all the above likelyhoods.

Then things get really silly, like talks of a unity party, democrats changing to republicans, republicans changing to democrats, all very unlikely stuff. I mean, it'd make sense for the 48% to work with the other 48% interested in governance instead of the 4% only interested in burning and draining, but unless politics change overnight, this won't be happening.

I though, find this all fascinating. I don't think it's a sign of democracy failure, as many governments deal all over the world deal with stuff like this (Israel seemingly every four to five months). In fact, highlighting these 4% uncompromisers is helpful for the GOP and democracy in the long run. Maybe, hopefully, the people watching can see these grifters for what they are. Maybe.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

If these guys are truly living for the reality-TV aspect of all this, here's the most cinematic ending: a duex ex trumpia, Trump strolls into the Capital (like he wanted to two years ago) and becomes the king maker. He stands beside McCarthy, paving the way to victory, or knifes him in the back. It'd make me vomit, but would definitely be the GOP win-win these knuckleheads desire.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

The hard right has moved their support from Jim Jordan (who publicly supports McCarthy) to Byron Donalds. This makes sense, and was one reason why I thought maybe moderates would hold their nose for Jordan. Because unlike McCarthy, the far right extracted no concessions from Jim Jordan, so there was a possibility that Jordan would govern with less worry from his right than McCarthy, no matter Jordan's personal political leanings. Well, that door closed.

That said, nothing has really changed today. It's a stalemate, and in the reality TV terms, stale is not exciting. He's going to bore the right into accepting him. Advantage: McCarthy.

Then again, via nytimes
Without a speaker, the United States House of Representatives essentially becomes a useless entity. With no sworn members, there are no lawmakers to make an official response to an emergency or a crisis. With no rules adopted, the legislative process cannot move forward; no bills can be passed or resolutions adopted.
We got ourselves a mini-government shutdown. A mini-swamp drain. Advantage: the hard right
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

How can you grift and scratch up donations when you have to show up at the actual job in a building and perform the work of governance? Surely that is not what this group signed up for! I'm not up to speed on the current situation but I gather they have to show up and vote, and they can't do most business until they sort it. Not doing business would be okay except they have to keep voting and they can't fail at that relative to the Ds even once.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

I'm enjoying this thread, not only because I feel it's low stakes (there will be a speaker at some point, and the GOP will still have more votes and lead committees and do a bunch of things I won't like) but also high stakes (if these charlatans are victorious, if McCarthy further sells his soul, if this portends more struggles for our democracy -- I mean other than once in the 1920s this hasn't been a thing since the horrible pre-Civil War era). I'd want/need the pro-governance team to win, but also there is a bit of popcorn theatre, of enjoying the sunlight hopefully disinfecting the worst parts, the reality tv / totalitarian-leaning parts.

But also because it's letting me see how much my guesses change, how much I'm getting wrong.

Today I think the key is someone somewhere is going to hold their nose. Who will it be:
Most Likely: the pro-governance GOP, they've had to hold their nose so much in the last decade, I doubt this will be the moment they say enough's enough. They'll promise to water down the speakership and/or remove McCarthy and then we'll forget about this in a few weeks.
Less Likely: the anti-governance GOP, at some point their protest will bore their fans and then themselves, they'll find a way to pick a win (maybe simply ousting McCarthy for another establishment type will do)
Most unlikely: 20+ democrats, who accept McCarthy even though his post-insurrection conduct is unforgivable, in exchange for some concessions (no debt ceiling fight, promise of bipartisan votes / votes on bills that passed the senate). Again would love to see this, but won't happen (or at least won't happen with McCarthy being speaker)

Rereading my guesses, there's a common likelihood: McCarthy not being speaker. Hmm, didn't think I was bullish on that but maybe I'm getting there.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Given the degree to which outright bribery via the use of PAC campaign funds apparently is now part of this, I'm surprised Democrats don't make some backroom deal to pick off six moderates. But how do you find someone moderate enough to be elected in a swing district who doesn't still face the prospect of a primary challenge from the right?
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

what GOPers have ranked choice voting? Probably not many.

Latest feeling: McCarthy always knew he'd give in, which is why he's not sweating. He'll get get a deal by hook and crook and nab all but three votes (Boebert, Brecheen, and Gaetz). He'll allow some stupid things to come up for a vote, he'll put insurrectionists on national security committees, and they'll gum in the works of compromise for the next two years. They'll probably burn down the CDC. Then they'll all yell that Washington doesn't work. But he'll be speaker, and that's all that matters.
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Mike
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Re: Republicans

Post by Mike »

I don't buy it. It may go down that way, and McCarthy probably will cut some sort of deal, but I think this is just a preview of every important (to the GOP) vote for the next two years. The MAGA clowns that are gumming things up now only survive on media attention, so I expect them to grandstand like this at every vote. This is the one time ever that this slim a margin makes the difference. They'll milk it for all it's worth.
Any time the solution is "banjo rifle", I'm in 100%.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

Today, I think you're right. The ratings success and political success will only embolden them. They're addicts getting their fix.

GOP using Jan 6 to unite with the Dems instead of insurrectionists would be nice, but instead what we'll get will be f'ck'n apt.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

poorpete wrote: Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:36 pm He'll get get a deal by hook and crook and nab all but three votes
My 1000th prediction might be coming to pass,
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Tahlvin
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Re: Republicans

Post by Tahlvin »

They were just waiting to do this on January 6th.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

They're adjuring until 10pm, hopefully the final vote will be after midnight
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

How strong rebels voting present like that means you didn't give up

How strong speaker will be taken down at the first compromise.

Was after midnight, called it, I so strong
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

George Santos, compulsive liar and now, also professional drag queen?

How is he worse than anyone else, now that we have normalized lying to the point of regular direct contradiction of reality? Why do GOP reps want to embrace people like GaetzGreeneGosar and then turn around and pretend outright lying is an issue? On what grounds could one worship Trump and reject Santos? We already established that this kind of fabricating is fine
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Mando
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Re: Republicans

Post by Mando »

Probably a serial killer too.

This is what happens when the Reps put a candidate into a district that they are sure they will lose.
To them anyone will do.
However the districts were redrawn to a R+10 and anyone with a heartbeat would win there.
Thats what happens when districts "don't matter"

They already put him on a committee :(
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

Mando wrote: Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:14 pm They already put him on a committee :(
Didn't make political sense to me until I realized leadership has complete control over his vote. He's still around only by their good graces, and he'll never cross them or else he'll immediately get thrown to the wolves. He's a drone until voters kick him out, which I see is slated for about 700 days from now.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

I don't have any evidence that Trump has ever dressed up in drag but we're going to substitute Giuliani for that one. Apart from that, I've yet to hear something Santos has done that Trump hasn't done better.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

It seems like two things are happening in Florida with this decision not to approve AP African American studies courses in the high schools. First is that whoever runs the education under DeSantis genuinely thinks this subject matter is worthless. Second is that DeSantis and others have made the political calculation that they need to make their scorn for things like this clear to the Republican primary voting base if they're going to have any hope of winning now or later.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Follow up on the above: instead of pulling AP courses from the state, they just rewrote the course to please people like DeSantis. He is so much worse than Trump - it's just that Trump and his clown car might inadvertently end life on the planet or do something else profoundly destructive via total incompetence. DeSantis is more competent but more dangerously wrong about pretty much everything.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Okay, I'm going to try to be polite about this and take out the curse words. I find the actions and words of many Republican leaders in response to the "Chinese spy balloon" to be dishonest, un-American, and unbelievably foolish to the point of being disqualifying for leadership decisionmaking. Are they letting their staffers run loose and say whatever, or do they genuinely believe there's a national security threat and the solution to that would be to get on social media and spout fact-free nonsense undermining our actual response?
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

I ignored it for a long time but it's the news time of day and I can't avoid hearing about it. Help me people, help me try to understand why people have heard the word balloon and think it's like a child's party where you could pop it with a dart. Like if you see a round object that flies that means it's a big single membrane filled with air. I... i... Help me understand why people want to shoot their gun at this object, why they think they can shoot it down with their gun. Why they think we are flying military planes by this object but they are going to take care of everything by shooting their gun into the sky. Help me understand why people who are former members of the military are saying s*** like this even though they were elected to make important decisions.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

The balloon criticism remains utterly insane but an unexpected bright spot emerged: turns out Trump did not, in fact, shoot down any of the balloons that appeared during his term. In other words, he's saner than I gave him credit for and probably listened to the military advice. He's still the pathological liar we expect but at least the lies this time conceal prudent acts.
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Mando
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Re: Republicans

Post by Mando »

SNL Balloon skit

"Yay! I'm for the other team."
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Well, It looks like I have to reverse my assessment: maybe in a shocking and rare moment, Trump is telling the truth that he didn't know about any balloons! But then we also have to take away the credit that was given for listening to his military leadership in an unexpected act of prudence. I feel like it would have been better the other way around?

I didn't watch the State of the Union. We almost always do but I was too tired. The media really sucks because instead of headlines offering any substance, a tour through the news (even on normally sober sites) lets me know about MTG but nothing much else. Was anything important said? We don't know. Apparently we're going to put an end to the nonsense practices of airlines charging you to sit by your kids. Less clear how we're going to do that. Personally appreciate it - would have been nice to have that feature in place a while ago. Any news on climate change? Global trade, the food supply, housing costs?

It does seem that Republicans are getting it together with respect to removing Trump from the equation. Their problem is that whoever can win a primary against Trump is unlikely to be somebody the rest of us want. I can think of a handful of Republicans I might vote for but none of them are even close to electable in a primary. It shocks me to hear Republicans talking about fellow Republicans they would like to primary out of the Senate or House for being inadequately conservative. Top of their list is Romney, of course, but also people like John Barrasso, Roger Wicker, and Deb Fischer! We are way over the rainbow somewhere if those three don't count as solid hardcore conservatives.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Lol, alas the enemy (Ron) of my enemy (AP classes and the SAT) is not thereby my friend. Wish somebody else had thought of that first but you get what you get.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Not a great lover of Nikki Haley but much prefer her to other options, ahem. I would like to see Tim Scott get in the race. Really just anybody I might disagree with on policy grounds but who seems like a sane and functional human being who respects democracy. We are setting the bar low but that's where it has to be set.
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Mando
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Re: Republicans

Post by Mando »

Phoebe wrote: Thu Feb 16, 2023 8:31 pm Not a great lover of Nikki Haley but much prefer her to other options, ahem. I would like to see Tim Scott get in the race. Really just anybody I might disagree with on policy grounds but who seems like a sane and functional human being who respects democracy. We are setting the bar low but that's where it has to be set.
I thought Tim Scott was running? :shock: You are correct, though, he has not committed one way or the other.

I just want DT to go away. He would be a lame duck from day one and he has had his time.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

He may have announced but I did not hear of it yet - I hope that he does because he seems like "Adult In The Room" of the kind needed. There are probably a few others who could fill this role and also have some possible chance of winning a primary. The good news is that the most urgent topic and political buzz in the R circles at the moment seems to be whether they should cut Trump loose, or whether it's possible to do so. Guessing maybe 1/4 - 1/2 are still total true Trump believers, MAGA for lyfe etc. Another 1/4 - 1/2 are totally pro DeSantis, in particular. The rest seem to be groping for another option who seems more electable but not sure who it is... true religious conservatives I know seem to strongly prefer Pence, but also don't think he can win. Agreed, I'd be shocked if he won the primary and even more shocked if he could win the general.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

The Tucker Carlson tapes are not so much causing as exposing the rot in the party: our local Rs are now fully on board with the narrative that January 6th was just a bunch of casual tourists being welcomed in by the police. What's better, when this nonsense is called out they piously aver that the other side is the one following the false narrative, because the January 6th committee is a bunch of liars and any Republican who would sit on it or testify in front of it is by definition a liar regardless of what they say. Any factual information about that day reported on any mainstream news station is by definition false by association, even if you saw it happening on live video that day with your own two eyes. You see, the mainstream media was only looking at areas where they were having a violent struggle, and choosing to ignore the areas where people were peacefully walking past a police officer. It's really astonishing. My prayer is that in my lifetime I don't have to worry about defending myself or loved ones from these yahoos. The hate for LGBTQ is so unleashed now as well - the bigotry was already there and now they feel like it's okay to publicly acknowledge and go for it. They're just so mad about the gay marriage thing and weren't ever able to get over it and now they can strike back and feel comfortable, by telling themselves the sick lie that they're protecting children from groomers.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Wow, the Fox News info from the Dominion lawsuit is going way further than I realized. I really wish the human beings I respect who are Republicans could take a closer look at this. The texts between Carlson, Hannity, Ingraham, and other "non-news" people at Fox are being presented in what I've seen as a split between the infotainment/news, unserious/serious, or lying/honest lines. While this may be true, the fact that jumps out at me immediately (maybe because I've been forced to spend way too much time listening to actual neo-Nazi rhetoric and you become familiar) is that Carlson/Hannity/Ingraham are united in their specific hatred of Jewish reporters working for Fox. That's the real common denominator behind their choice to trash certain colleagues in private communications. Aaron Mishkin (who inspires visceral disgust in nazi-saluting-Ingraham), Chris Wallace, Leland Vittert - these are people "normal" Republicans might not realize are Jewish, so they don't see that "coincidentally", these are the ones being singled out for venom among the other Fox reporters who at some point soberly presented facts about election fraud claims or Jan 6.

I'm not saying Republicans are the only ones with this problem - I'm just as upset about comments by Omar and others - but they don't ever see it or say anything. This neonazi rot is driving the agenda for the party; would anyone deny Tucker is the most powerful Republican out there right now next to Trump himself? Even Mitch McConnell can't touch him - all he can do is tsk tsk about the Jan 6 stuff and it gets no traction with most of his party.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Trump and DeSantis getting spicy with one another now. There's a bizarre video comparing DeSantis saying his name, DeeSantis, up until a certain point when he must have been advised that everybody else said it a different way, DaSantis, and he should adopt that way for political benefit. Wild.
RuPaul's drag race has been on television for how many years now? No one cares. Personally I find it zero interest. But I believe they are all clothed. DeSantis is going to bankrupt the philharmonic because the space was used every year like usual to put on Drag Queen Christmas. We're going to have to listen to this solid for the next year until one Republican front-runner emerges and then suddenly we won't hear about it anymore.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Here's another gem:
Kirk Cameron was invited to read at a library storybook hour from his Evangelical book. The library discovered overwhelming interest in the event and proposed that it be moved to a nearby large church to accommodate the crowd. Outrage ensued including bomb threats for which a man in another state was arrested. The librarian who was concerned about packing the crowd into the library was fired from her job.

Then the reading happened...
Attendees delightedly praised the enormous overflow crowd that could not fit into the venue! Success!
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

Tax evasion charges are just going to embolden Capone
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

"I question the timing" can only be said by Jimmy Carter about the hostage releases. Otherwise, when, exactly, is the good time to indict a former president?
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

I don't know, it's all so tawdry and grotesque. It's like his crimes go beyond what anyone is going to hold him to account for piecemeal - I hope he is held to account, but really it's history that will judge him our worst president ever, maybe fighting it out with Andrew Johnson in the afterlife for that honor.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

Dominion and Fox settle. Probably good for both of them. Questionable on if it's good for press freedom (lean yes) and press accountability (lean no)
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

I share your feeling on this - It's a little good accountability for the company itself to have to pay, but I feel like they just papered over a bunch of really damaging content because they used it to get more money. So a bunch of people who would have been exposed in their culpability have been able to skate through relatively unscathed. Meanwhile the rest of us don't know all the details and we were the ones lied to. Well, not those of us who didn't watch Fox, but we all suffered the detriment of a society where they get away with lying to people.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Will be very interesting to see what happens with Tucker Carlson because the weight of the far right has become so great they seem to be toppling over that direction and leaving a chunk of other Republicans (and Fox News) behind. At some point it starts to interfere with the money and then it won't be acceptable ideology anymore, even for the purpose of stirring up the base.

Now that the restriction of abortion is becoming widespread reality, and attacking gays and k-12 teachers has backfired in actual elections, they have to double down on attacking trans people and college teachers who are indoctrinating the woke. Fun times. I've been reading some stuff about how all of this is part of a global turn against democracy which we can expect to continue because of the pressures of climate change, migration, and ongoing virus threats. People know these changes are happening, and larger and larger numbers of individuals are now having personal experiences with these changes. Yet they know current governing institutions are impotent in the face of such challenges and eventually won't be able to do anything to help. So one natural reaction ends up being the creation of others who can be targeted for collective blame, and help accomplish the emotional catharsis for people who know they are doomed and have no outlet.

Even within the blame-target-groups, people turn on each other as if this is the most significant threat. The radical lesbians who for years now have been angry about trans women are discovering that in the hands of red state legislatures, trans women and lesbians are equally hated and will be restricted by law. It's really something to see them coming to this realization: allies on the right want women to be breeders and they don't like radical lesbians at all! How this is a shock to anyone is beyond me, but here we are. Meanwhile, the conservative intelligentsia is still complaining about being "silenced" by activists, even as legislatures are now eagerly passing laws to tell them what they are not allowed to say in a classroom. Apparently they think that team "shoot up a case of bud lite" is going to give a s*** what a bunch of intellectuals say about anything, when their time comes.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

Image

A helpful stat I saw. Not only is going after trans people already majority-unpopular nationwide, even those in GOP, but look at that 17% .If you know someone trans/nonbinary, you're more likely to not like when they get demonized.

Optimist: as more people become open about themselves, this will change minds, much like what happened with gay rights.

Pessimist: Whipping people up into fearing what is OTHER is the oldest trick in the book people, partly because it often works.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

Evidence out that Florida's Surgeon General reran numbers over and over in an study until it arrived at a negative result and then only published that negative result. Gross. Unethical. Dangerous. And there's a non 0 percent chance this guy and his team might move to the federal government in the next few years.

https://substack.com/inbox/post/117456323
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

Godspeed, Tim Scott, the only Republican in this race for whom I could vote. I don't know whether you're running for vice president or whether you have a shot if the people decide the other ones are unelectable, but a strong showing would put the whole Republican party back on a closer track to normal and that would be great for everyone.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

Yep. I used to be very much an anyone but The Don, but the Florida guy is such an arsonist, if there is a third choice that's picked, someone remotely normal and open to others and compromises every so often, I'll be happy. Well less worried about our future. And them finally picking a person outside the white race -- something they've NEVER DONE, absurd, would be great. That said, I'm not blind enough to know that electing any of them would be a further step back to many causes I support, but still, if my opponents win 45% of the time, I want them to be competent!
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Kyle
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Re: Republicans

Post by Kyle »

I don't know that I could vote for Tim Scott, but I know that if he got elected, I wouldn't be worried our democracy would fall- so it would be okay.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

That's the bar now!
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

I didn't see this at the time but Biden staff trolling DeS. and Musk with "this link works", to the Biden donation site, gave me a chuckle.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

A speaker at our village Memorial Day parade let it be known that kids these days face grave threats, not from say school attacks or social media, but from woke Christianity, trans people, drag shows, and open borders. Said there should be more toxic masculinity. It was a pretty disgusting speech that really soured the event, which otherwise was touching and somber. He ended it by saying we should be less divisive.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

That's one of the best things about these jokers, they're so bothered by all the divisiveness. Gone are the happy, carefree days when I could be a jerk and everybody would let it pass or even agree with me! Now they think I'm a bigot when I'm bigoted, and where is the fun in that?!

It seems like I'm simply making fun of people with this mindset but I'll never be able to forget that more of them died, literally passed away in a horrible manner, because they could not accept that woke idiots, like expert infectious disease doctors, might not have been lying to them. When we deal with people in the healthcare field experiencing burnout, one of the things they repeat is how depressing it was to treat patients who were grateful for their human labor but simply could not accept any of their empirical claims about the world. I don't think it's very funny when people are brainwashed and die because of it, even if sarcasm is a coping mechanism.

The rest of this post is redacted to protect the guilty.
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Phoebe
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Re: Republicans

Post by Phoebe »

The fear and punishment of supposed sexual deviance is a hallmark of fascism, historically. Fascism requires the identification of deviant groups against which the purity of the fascist regime will be demonstrated. We are now at the stage of fascism where people feel completely comfortable asking to boycott a store because they sell a shirt with a rainbow and the word pride on it. People are free to do this but where are the Republican politicians denouncing this s***?

Nobody will escape the purity police either: Chick-fil-A is being boycotted by some of its own previous supporters because it has a DEI program. The best part is that completely innocuous things, like treating people with respect and dignity and not permitting discrimination in the hiring process, are being quoted specifically and flagged as the evidence the company is doing something anti-Christian. So the Christian thing would be to discriminate in hiring and not treat people with dignity and respect? I think you misunderstood Jesus, folks. In other news I was quietly kicked out of my Bible study group by not being invited back, because I'm too pro-gay and/or not enough anti-abortion. I tried, y'all, I tried. I thought it would be okay to be part of a mixed group and not just limit myself to talking to people who already agree with me. Wrong.

It's very tempting to take things like this (including the entire way Christianity is presently coming into public political life) as a disincentive to be committed to Christian faith, but it's not the faith that rejected me, it's the people who so grossly misunderstand it. When cruelty and hatred of other people is at the core of what you're doing, it's essentially anti-Christian. It makes me so sad because obviously I think Christian faith is precious and valuable, and it's very hard to encourage other people in that direction when it has become so publicly identified with moral wrongs.
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poorpete
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Re: Republicans

Post by poorpete »

Phoebe wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 8:32 am I think you misunderstood Jesus
PREACH!
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